Tag Archives: Ted Cruz

So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

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A focus on the SCOTX races

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

With so much litigation over a variety of voting issues, the Supreme Court of Texas is in the news a lot these days. Will that mean more attention being paid to the four races for SCOTX positions? The sleepy contests … Continue reading →

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Once again with Asian-American voters

Posted on November 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Long story in the Trib, on a topic that could use more focus. When Debbie Chen temporarily closed her Houston restaurant in March due to the coronavirus, she was worried about her health and her financial livelihood. But as a … Continue reading →

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October 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on October 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is it, the last quarterly finance report roundup for the cycle. It’s been quite the time, hasn’t it? Let’s do this and see where we are as voting continues. The January 2019 roundup is here, which closed out the … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll get into a broader discussion in a minute, but for now, there’s this: President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden with the support of 50% of the state’s likely voters to Biden’s 45% in the 2020 race … Continue reading →

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Bexar County poll: Biden 52, Trump 35

Posted on October 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the San Antonio Report: The new Bexar Facts/KSAT/San Antonio Report poll showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a sizable lead over President Donald Trump among registered Bexar County voters. Poll results released Tuesday, two weeks before early voting … Continue reading →

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CD10 poll: McCaul 45, Siegel 43

Posted on September 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

One more Congressional district polled. A new internal poll from the Democratic nominee for Texas’ 10th Congressional District, Mike Siegel, showed the race against Rep. Michael McCaul within just two points. The poll found a narrowing lead for McCaul, who … Continue reading →

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Trib overview of the Senate race

Posted on September 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It really comes down to the top of the ticket. There’s no getting around it. Even before a pandemic struck, protests over racial justice took to the streets and a vacancy opened on the U.S. Supreme Court, this year’s U.S. … Continue reading →

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Two more polls of Texas

Posted on September 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Trump is up two in this one. Florida and Texas remain tight battlegrounds in the presidential election, according to CBS News Battleground Tracker polls released Sunday. The current margin in both states is 2 percentage points, with Democratic nominee Joe … Continue reading →

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CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

Posted on September 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading →

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CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

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CD21 poll: Davis 48, Roy 47

Posted on September 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Second poll in this district. Between August 31 and September 4, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative sample of 401 likely general election voters in Texas-21st CD. The survey, which was conducted on both landlines and cell phones, was fully representative of … Continue reading →

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A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

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Recount ends in CD23

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Republicans finally have a candidate to defend their most vulnerable Congressional seat in Texas. The recount of the Republican primary runoff for the national battleground seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, has reached an end, and Tony … Continue reading →

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Hegar to get a boost

Posted on August 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Nice. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Tuesday that it will spend at least $1 million to help MJ Hegar in her challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. The DSCC said it will be the first time the committee … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Looks like maybe we’ll get a regular dose of these. Democrats enter the peak of the campaign season with advantages that make their path to regaining control of the Senate easier for strategists and handicappers to envision alongside a Joe … Continue reading →

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Matt Glazer: A way to end surprise medical bills

Posted on July 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

(Note: The following is a guest post that was submitted to me. I occasionally solicit guest posts, and also occasionally accept them from people I trust.) At a young age, I had to deal with medical issue after medical issue. … Continue reading →

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A deeper dive into the Texas polls

Posted on July 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Decision Desk: Whenever there is a new poll of Texas released, there are a ton of hot takes on Twitter. Old believers of Texas as the great blue whale for the Democrats move to dismiss the poll, saying that … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

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What Ted Cruz is scared of

Posted on July 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s give him a reason for it. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz delivered a dire message to Texas Republican activists on Saturday about the danger President Donald Trump faces in November here. “This is a real race,” Cruz told the Republican … Continue reading →

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Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

Posted on July 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading →

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2020 primary runoff results: Congress

Posted on July 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’m going to bullet point these just for simplicity. There will be news stories to look at later. CD03 Dem: Lulu Seikaly cruised to an easy win here. She was just over 60% at around 10 PM, with some Election … Continue reading →

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A bullish take on the State House

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Mike Hailey of Capitol Inside: The wildly unpredictable coronavirus appears to be fueling a massive blue wave that sweeps the Democrats back into power in the Texas House of Representatives with President Donald Trump as their all-time greatest ally. … Continue reading →

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 46

Posted on July 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And here’s poll number two, which is technically about the Texas Senate race but I’m counting it as a Presidential poll for consistency. Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds that John Cornyn has basically no profile in Texas. Only … Continue reading →

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What should Joe Biden do in Texas?

Posted on June 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

“Win” would be my preferred answer, but it’s more complicated than that. No matter how frequently it happens, it’s always a bit startling. Ever since February 2019, polls have been coming out indicating that former Vice President Joe Biden is … Continue reading →

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Who needs testing?

Posted on June 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Not a great idea. The Trump administration is planning to end federal support for some coronavirus testing sites across the nation at the end of the month — including seven in Texas, where confirmed cases of COVID are spiking. An … Continue reading →

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PPP/PT: Trump 48, Biden 46

Posted on June 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. Today, Progress Texas released statewide Texas voter poll results, showing Democrats are within striking distance in both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races in Texas. What does this mean? Texas voters are fed up with Texas … Continue reading →

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The George Floyd March

Posted on June 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Impressive. Sixty thousand people joined the family of George Floyd as well as elected officials and religious leaders today in a peaceful Houston march from Discovery Green to City Hall organized by rappers and civic activists Trae tha Truth, Bun … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of the CD02 primary

Posted on March 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Gonna be an interesting one. Near the end of a recent forum for the three Democrats looking to unseat U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a seemingly innocuous moment hinted at some friction between candidates Elisa Cardnell and Sima Ladjevardian. “At the … Continue reading →

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Five questions for the primary

Posted on February 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Five questions I thought of, anyway. With my own answers, some of which are admittedly on the weaselish side. Feel free to discuss/disagree/ask your own questions/etc. 1. What kind of turnout are we going to have? The short answer is … Continue reading →

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News flash: Republicans still like Trump

Posted on November 15, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I’m as shocked as you are. As in any sports bar in Texas when the Dallas Cowboys are playing on Monday night, most of the TVs at a British pub in northwest San Antonio were tuned to the … Continue reading →

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Abbott and Paxton threaten transgender child

Posted on October 28, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I’m utterly speechless. Top Texas Republicans have directed the state’s child welfare agency to investigate whether a mother who supports her 7-year-old child’s gender transition is committing “child abuse” — a move that has alarmed an already fearful community of … Continue reading →

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In which I agree with Ted Cruz: Shame on the NBA

Posted on October 8, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

When he’s right, he’s right. Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey has the support of some lawmakers in D.C., even as the Rockets and NBA have apologized for his comments supporting pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. Morey over the weekend tweeted … Continue reading →

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