Tag Archives: Election 2016

Initial thoughts: The Lege

Posted on November 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Live by the gerrymander, die by the gerrymander. At the end of the 2011 legislative session, state Rep. Rafael Anchia, a Dallas Democrat, sat down to dinner with a Republican colleague from the Texas House. Anchia was exhausted and incensed. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Celia Israel, Chris Turner, Dallas County, Donald Trump, Donna Howard, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Erin Zwiener, Gina Calanni, HD102, HD105, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD121, HD126, HD129, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD14, HD150, HD23, HD26, HD28, HD29, HD32, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD54, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD70, HD84, HD85, HD89, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, Hillary Clinton, James Talarico, Jessica Gonzalez, Joe Pickett, John Bucy, John Turner, John Whitmire, Jon Rosenthal, Julie Johnson, Kirk Watson, Mary Gonzalez, Michelle Beckley, Rafael Anchia, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, Tracy King, turnout, Vikki Goodwin | 4 Comments

The CD23 race isn’t quite over yet

Posted on November 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I believe it is highly unlikely that the outcome in CD23 will change from the current close win for Rep. Will Hurd, but we are not done counting the votes just yet. The Texas congressional race between incumbent Republican Will … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Bexar County, CD23, Congress, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, Maverick County, Medina County, Pete Gallego, polls, provisional ballots, recount, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, Will Hurd | 1 Comment

Initial reactions: Statewide

Posted on November 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m going to do a few of these “Initial reaction” posts about Tuesday’s elections as I try to make sense of all that happened. Here we go. Let me start with a number. Two numbers, actually: 4,017,851 and 48.26%. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Joi Chevalier, Justin Nelson, Kathy Cheng, Kim Olson, Land Commissioner, Lite Gov, Lupe Valdez, Maria Jackson, Miguel Suazo, Mike Collier, Railroad Commission, Ramona Franklin, RK Sandill, Roman McAllen, Senate, Steven Kirkland, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout | 8 Comments

Omnibus election report

Posted on November 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged 13th Court of Appeals, 14th Court of Appeals, 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, Adrian Garcia, Ana-Maria Ramos, Beto O'Rourke, Beverly Powell, Brian Middleton, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Commissioners Court, Congress, Dallas County, Denton County, District Attorney, Ed Emmett, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Erin Zwiener, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Hays County, HD102, HD105, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD135, HD136, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD65, Houston, Jack Morman, James Talarico, Jan McDowell, Jana Sanchez, Joe Kopser, John Bucy, John Turner, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Julie Johnson, Julie Oliver, Lina Hidalgo, Lizzie FLetcher, Lorie Burch, Michelle Beckley, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Nathan Johnson, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, SD10, SD16, Senate, Sri Kulkarni, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, Third Court of Appeals, Todd Litton, turnout, Vikki Goodwin, Williamson County | 13 Comments

Today is election day

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s what we’ve been waiting for, for what seems like forever. From the inbox: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 is Election Day. Voting locations will be open from 7 am to 7 pm. Voters may visit www.HarrisVotes.com, the County Clerk’s election … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election Day, Harris County, HFD, Houston, HPFFA, lawsuit, Sylvester Turner, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

An under the radar pickup opportunity

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s an open seat in the SBOE. Suzanne Smith says she has tried to run a nonpartisan campaign in her low-profile bid for a place on the State Board of Education. But she stands to benefit from the current contentious … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, fundraising, Geraldine Miller, Pam Little, SBOE, Suzanne Smith, Texas | Comments Off

The trend in mail ballots

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wanted to take a closer look at the not-in-person aspect of early voting: Year Mailed Returned Return% Dem % ========================================= 2008 76,187 68,612 90.06% 36.60% 2010 69,991 55,560 79.38% 30.82% 2012 92,290 76,085 82.44% 41.79% 2014 89,073 71,994 80.83% 48.94% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 23 Comments

Projecting Tuesday turnout

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the statewide view. By the time the polls closed Thursday, 33.7 percent of registered voters in Bexar County had voted, well past the 17.3 percent turnout at the same point in 2014, the last midterm, and close to the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Bexar County, Collin County, Denton County, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, judicial races, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 1 Comment

The Courts of Appeals

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The other judicial races where Dems have a chance to gain ground. Republicans dominate Texas politics — but their stranglehold is especially noticeable in the courts. Republicans hold all 18 seats on the state’s two high courts. Of the state’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged 13th Court of Appeals, 14th Court of Appeals, 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, Brazoria County, Dallas County, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, judicial races, Texas, Third Court of Appeals, Travis County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 12: Final curtain

Posted on November 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It was apparently a late night with long lines, and the report didn’t arrive by 10 PM, so you’ll have to settle for this. When the polls closed in Harris County Friday, more voters had cast ballots than in any … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 5 Comments

Early voting, Day 11: Almost done

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Before we get to the numbers, here’s my new favorite quote of the cycle: “If Ted Cruz had Beto’s campaign manager he’d be leading by 20 points,” said Dan Rogers, the Republican chairman in Potter County, where Cruz drew about … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

A broader look at the statewide judicial races

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the Trib: Judicial candidates are subject to strict campaign finance restrictions, making it difficult to get their names out across a state of 28 million. And they must walk a difficult line as they campaign, running as partisans without … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, John Devine, judicial races, RK Sandill, Sharon Keller, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

Early voting, Day 10: Happy Halloween

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Wednesday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 9: Who are these people?

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The question keeps getting asked, who is it that has been voting so far? An unprecedented number of Texans cast their ballots during the first week of early voting, but it is impossible to predict whether that surge will benefit … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Dallas County, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 9 Comments

“The least-discussed vulnerable Republican on the ballot”

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Grits: Grits does not expect Beto O’Rourke to win. But if he were to pull off the upset, many other dominos could fall in succession as a result, with at least three Republican senators, Texas’ Attorney General, and potentially … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, judicial races, Ken Paxton, polls, President, Senate, Sharon Keller, Sid Miller, Supreme Court, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 8: On to Week 2

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Monday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 5 Comments

Day 7 early voting: Let the hot takes begin

Posted on October 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quote this bit from this story about how the Senate campaigns are interpreting the early vote turnout so far. Derek Ryan, a GOP data consultant who previously worked for the state party, said there are a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 4 Comments

Day 6 early voting: A very early stab at projecting turnout

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is the point in the early voting process where early voting hours expand, and as a result daily EV reports come in later. That may affect my ability to present the latest data each day, so I’m going to … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 1 Comment

The eSlate issue

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Everyone please take a deep breath. Some straight-ticket voters have reported that voting machines recorded them selecting the candidate of another party for U.S. Senate, exposing a potential problem with the integrity of the state’s high-profile contest between U.S. Sen. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2008, Election 2016, Election 2018, eSlate, Secretary of State, straight ticket voting, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Civil Rights Project | 13 Comments

Early voting Day 5: It’s been a long week (in a good way)

Posted on October 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Did I mention it’s been busy? Voters across the state have come out in massive numbers during the first five days of early voting, and soon, more Texans will have voted early in 2018 than in all of 2014’s early … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Cameron County, Dallas County, early voting, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Day 4 early voting: A brief look around the state

Posted on October 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib has it all organized for you. As of day three of early voting, 1,344,741 Texans have cast in-person ballots and 240,601 cast mail-in ballots in the 30 counties where most registered voters in the state — 78 percent … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 9 Comments

The Fort Bend DA race

Posted on October 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

There’s been a lot of focus on how Harris County will vote this year after Hillary Clinton’s wide margin of victory in 2016 – I’ve certainly contributed to that – but it’s important to remember that Clinton carried Fort Bend … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Brian Middleton, Cliff Vacek, District Attorney, Election 2016, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, John Healey, Texas | 1 Comment

Day 3 early voting: In shorter hours

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve heard a few people complain about the shorter early voting hours in the first week. For the first five days for early voting, Harris County’s 46 polling locations open at 8 a.m. and close at 4:30 p.m., the earliest … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 15 Comments

The Beto-Abbott voters

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, CD07, CD32, Congress, David Dewhurst, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Lupe Valdez, polls, President, Rick Perry, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 5 Comments

Day 1 early voting totals: Like three days in one

Posted on October 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Monday was busy. Harris County residents on Monday set a new record for the first day of early voting in a midterm election, as 63,188 went to the polls to cast ballots. The turnout smashed the previous mark, set in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 7 Comments

CD31 “live poll” Carter 53, Hegar 38

Posted on October 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Not a great result in CD31, where Democratic challenger MJ Hegar and her fundraising and amazing vidoes have moved this race against Rep. John Carter into lean-Republican territory on multiple forecasters’ lists, with two minor caveats and one addendum. Nate … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD31, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, John Carter, MJ Hegar, polls, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | Comments Off

Lots more voters registered statewide

Posted on September 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Always good to hear. The Texas voter rolls have grown to 15.6 million people, a new record, Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos confirmed. That is nearly a 400,000-person increase since March and a jump of 1.6 million since the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Battleground Texas, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Secretary of State, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 2 Comments

Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD02, CD07, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, Texas | Comments Off

The Dallas County House battleground

Posted on September 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Lot of seats in play here. [Julie] Johnson is among several Democratic candidates in Dallas hoping national and statewide talk of a blue wave will trickle down to several local state House races. A mix of Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, HD105, HD113, HD114, HD115, Hillary Clinton, John Turner, Jonathan Boos, Julie Johnson, Lisa Luby Ryan, Lupe Valdez, Matt Rinaldi, precinct analysis, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, Rodney Anderson, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 3 Comments

CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD07, CD23, CD32, Congress, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, polls, precinct data, Senate, Texas, Will Hurd | 3 Comments

CD23 “live poll”: Hurd 51, Ortiz Jones 43

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Give this one a bit of side-eye. Incumbent Republican Will Hurd is leading his Democratic challenger, Gina Ortiz Jones, in one of the country’s most competitive races in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new poll by The New … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD23, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, Pete Gallego, polls, Quico Canseco, Texas, Will Hurd | 3 Comments

Early voting has begun for SD19 special election runoff

Posted on September 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Don’t lose sight of this election. A strong yet unsuccessful showing in 2016 against incumbent Carlos Uresti was enough to convince Pete Flores to take another shot at Uresti’s State Senate seat, this time in a special election to complete … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Pete Flores, Pete Gallego, runoff, SD19, Senate, special election, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

Harris County 2018 voter registration numbers

Posted on September 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Thank you Harris County Voter Registration Division and Harris County Volunteer Deputy Voter Registrars for your passion, dedication, and commitment in registering eligible voters! Current number registered: 2,291,037 Voters registered in 2017: 67,753 Voters registered in 2018: … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ann Harris Bennett, Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Harris County Tax Assessor, Mike Sullivan, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

How can Beto win?

Posted on September 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is from the weekly newsletter put out by G. Elliott Morris: Let’s talk about voter turnout in Texas. The statewide voting-agedpopulation is a mixed bag, made up of 45% White, 37% Hispanic, 11% Black, and 6% Asian/other residents, according to projections from the Center … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Hillary Clinton, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 18 Comments

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