Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Precinct analysis: The not-as-good statewide races

Posted on January 2, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races The difference between these statewide races and the ones we have already looked at, including the Governor’s race, is very simple: These Republican candidates did better … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Comptroller, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Election 2022, Glenn Hegar, Greg Abbott, Janet Dudding, Jay Kleberg, Ken Paxton, Land Commissioner, Luke Warford, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, Rochelle Garza, Sid Miller, Susan Hays, Texas, Wayne Christian | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: The better statewide races

Posted on December 30, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer As noted before, Greg Abbott got 490K votes in Harris County, far less than the 559K he received in 2018 running against Lupe Valdez. Of the other six races … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, Dan Patrick, Election 2010, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Greg Abbott, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD138, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Ken Paxton, Lite Gov, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Rochelle Garza, Sid Miller, Susan Hays, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: Hidalgo versus Mealer

Posted on December 29, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread We’ve looked at the Governor’s race, in which Beto was the top Democratic performer. Now we’ll look at the next highest profile race, in which the result was a surprise to some … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, Constable, Election 2004, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Election 2026, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Lina Hidalgo, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, write-in candidate | 6 Comments

Precinct analysis: Beto versus the spread

Posted on December 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott So last time we saw the numbers for the 2022 Governor’s race. But what numbers need in order to be meaningful is context, and that means other numbers to compare them to. We’re going to do … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2014, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD133, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, Joe Biden, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Beto versus Abbott

Posted on December 14, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

All right, I have the full landscape data for Harris County and the November 2022 election, and I’ll be doing my usual thing with it. There’s a lot of data and a lot of ways to explore it, some of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, CD10, CD18, CD29, CD38, Commissioners Court, Constable, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD133, HD138, precinct analysis, redistricting, SD06, SD15, Texas | 2 Comments

State and county election result relationships: Tarrant County

Posted on December 12, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In years past, Tarrant County was a pretty close bellwether for election results in the state of Texas. From 2004 through 2016, the closeness of their Presidential numbers with the statewide numbers was eerie. But since 2018 the talk has … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Governor, Joe Biden, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Wendy Davis | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Specifically, my precincts

Posted on December 4, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still waiting for the full landscape canvass data from Harris County – things are a bit up in the air right now because of the lawsuit filed by the local GOP, but I expect to get that data soon, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Beto O'Rourke, Ed Emmett, Election 2018, Election 2022, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Lina Hidalgo, precinct analysis, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: How the 2022 Harris County State Rep candidates did versus the 2020 and 2018 results

Posted on November 28, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alma Allen, Beto O'Rourke, Christina Morales, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD128, HD129, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, HD145, HD148, HD149, HD150, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Lupe Valdez, Mano DeAyala, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Early voting versus Election Day

Posted on November 21, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In his pre-election analyses of the early vote, Republican consultant Derek Ryan (whose numbers I have used in the past) suggested that there was still a significant number of regular Republican voters who had not voted yet, which could make … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Bastrop County, Beto O'Rourke, Bowie County, Dallas County, early voting, Election 2022, Election Day, Fort Bend County, Governor, Greg Abbott, Gregg County, Harris County, Hays County, Lubbock, precinct analysis, Texas, Travis County, Waller County, Williamson County | Comments Off

On comparing counties from 2018 to 2022

Posted on November 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I started with this. Voters in counties across Texas chose GOP leaders over Democrats at a higher rate than they did four years ago, a Dallas Morning News analysis shows. The findings, based on data as of noon on Wednesday, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Collin County, Dallas County, Dan Patrick, Denton County, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Governor, Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, Lupe Valdez, precinct analysis, redistricting, Rockwall County, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

State and county election result relationships, part 4: What happened in 2022

Posted on November 15, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Now that the final totals are in, let’s go back and do the same exercise in comparing overall results for statewide candidates to the results they got in Harris County, and then from there … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, judicial races, Lina Hidalgo, polls, precinct analysis, Texas, turnout, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

State and county election result relationships, part 3: Other county races

Posted on October 21, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part One Part Two Last time we looked at judicial races, which for all of the complaints about not knowing the candidates and just going by partisan labels have produced a consistent range of outcomes over the years. Some people … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beverly Kaufman, Devon Anderson, Diane Trautman, District Attorney, District Clerk, Ed Emmett, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Harris County Judge, Harris County Sheriff, Harris County Tax Assessor, Harris County Treasurer, HCDE, Kim Ogg, Lloyd Oliver, Mike Anderson, Paul Bettencourt, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, straight ticket voting, Texas, Tommy Thomas | 6 Comments

State and county election result relationships, part 2: Judicial races

Posted on October 20, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In Part One of this series, we looked at the relationship between statewide results and Harris County results for statewide candidates. In the last three elections, statewide Democratic candidates have done on average more than nine points better in Harris … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, judicial races, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Texas | 1 Comment

State and county election result relationships, part 1: How Harris compares

Posted on October 18, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the relationship between how statewide Democratic candidates do in Harris County versus how they do overall, and what that might tell us about the state of play in Harris County. Since I started … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Texas | 5 Comments

Let’s name a few legislative battlegrounds

Posted on August 22, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

It’s getting to be that time of the election cycle. Two years ago, Democrats were gearing up for a rare opportunity in modern times: capturing the Texas House majority. But after they came up woefully short — and Republican-led redistricting … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Bexar County, campaign finance reports, Collin County, Donald Trump, Eddie Morales, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Frank Ramirez, fundraising, HD108, HD112, HD118, HD121, HD133, HD37, HD70, HD74, Jamee Jolly, Jim Murphy, Joe Biden, John Lujan, Mihaela Plesa, Morgan Meyer, precinct analysis, redistricting, Steve Allison, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: The new Senate map

Posted on March 22, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Previously: New State House map, New Congressional map, new SBOE map. The good news is that all 31 Senate seats will be on the ballot this year, as it is a post-redistricting year. The bad news is that the only … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged demography, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, precinct analysis, redistricting, SD02, SD07, SD08, SD09, SD10, SD12, SD17, SD19, SD20, SD27, SD30, Senate, Texas | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Beto’s range in the 2022 primaries

Posted on March 15, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

When you get 91.34% of the vote in an election, as Beto did in the Democratic primary for Governor, there’s usually not a whole lot of interesting data beneath the surface. But you never know until you look, so I … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bexar County, Cameron County, Collin County, Dallas County, Democratic primary, Denton County, Dimmit County, Duval County, El Paso, Election 2018, Election 2022, Fort Bend County, Frio County, Governor, Harris County, Hidalgo County, Jefferson County, Jim Wells County, Joy Diaz, Maverick County, Michael Cooper, Montgomery County, Nueces County, precinct analysis, Sema Hernandez, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, Webb County | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: The new SBOE map

Posted on December 22, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Previously: New State House map, New Congressional map I probably care more about the SBOE than most normal people do. It’s not that powerful an entity, there are only 15 seats on it, and their elections go largely under the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Collin County, Comal County, Dallas County, Denton County, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Election 2022, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hood County, Joe Biden, Johnson County, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, redistricting, SBOE, Somervell County, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: The new Congressional map

Posted on November 23, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Previously: New State House map We will now take a look at how the districts of interest in the new Congressional map have changed over the past decade. Same basic idea, looking at the closer districts from 2020 to see … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Barack Obama, CD03, CD07, CD10, CD12, CD15, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD26, CD28, CD31, CD34, CD38, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Election 2022, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: The new State House map

Posted on November 8, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Like it or not, we have new State House districts. We may as well acquaint ourselves with them. The coverage we’ve had so far has focused on the 2020 election numbers to say whether a district will be red or … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alex Dominguez, Barack Obama, Bell County, Beto O'Rourke, Brazoria County, Brazos County, Collin County, Denton County, Donald Trump, Eddie Lucio, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Fort Bend County, Hays County, HD106, HD108, HD112, HD118, HD121, HD122, HD126, HD127, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD138, HD14, HD144, HD148, HD150, HD20, HD25, HD26, HD28, HD29, HD33, HD34, HD35, HD36, HD37, HD39, HD41, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD54, HD55, HD57, HD61, HD63, HD65, HD66, HD70, HD74, HD76, HD80, HD84, HD89, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, HD99, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, Penny Shaw, precinct analysis, redistricting, Rockwall County, Texas, The Lege, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Congress, part 2

Posted on September 21, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, Barack Obama, CD07, CD15, CD28, CD32, CD34, Christi Craddick, Chrysta Castaneda, Congress, Dale Henry, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Hillary Clinton, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, Nathan Hecht, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, Supreme Court, Ted Cruz, Texas | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Congress, part 1

Posted on September 14, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD15, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD28, CD31, CD32, CD34, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, redistricting, Senate, Texas | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: SBOE

Posted on September 7, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, redistricting, Ruben Cortez, SBOE, Texas | 1 Comment

A look ahead to Commissioners Court redistricting

Posted on August 24, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

As we know, the Census redistricting data is out, and that means a whole lot of map-drawing is in our future. The main focus on this will be in Austin where the Congressional and legislative maps are re-drawn, but those … Continue reading →