Tag Archives: polls

PPP: Biden 48, Trump 47

Posted on August 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden emerged from his national convention with a 1 percentage point lead in Texas over Republican President Donald Trump, a poll scheduled for wide release on Tuesday shows. The results from the … Continue reading →

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As goes Tarrant, 2020 edition

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, old friend. Shortly after Democrat Beto O’Rourke launched his campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, he made several visits to Tarrant County in North Texas to press the message that if he could flip this county, … Continue reading →

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A poll of the RRC race

Posted on August 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here you go: A new survey from nationally respected polling firm Global Strategy Group (GSG) shows that the combination of Chrysta Castañeda’s unique biography, her opponent Jim Wright’s potent negatives, and Donald Trump’s free-fall in Texas give Castañeda a clear … Continue reading →

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What is the level of Latino support for Trump in Texas?

Posted on August 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We have some contradictory evidence this week. First, from Texas Elects: President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 48%-41%, among “all voters” and by a slightly smaller 49.5%-44% margin among voters who indicated they were “extremely likely to vote,” … Continue reading →

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The Kamala effect

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I assume you are all aware that California Sen. Kamala Harris is now the Democratic nominee for Vice President. I didn’t post about that on Wednesday because it was hardly news by the time I published, but there are things … Continue reading →

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Now we’re getting favorable State House polls

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A recent poll of Texas House District 126, conducted for Democratic challenger Natali Hurtado’s campaign shows her essentially tied with Republican incumbent Sam Harless. The poll of 401 likely voters, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, showed Hurtado … Continue reading →

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Latino voter engagement 2020

Posted on August 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We have a poll for that. Latinos in Texas say they are much more motivated to vote this November than they were in 2016, with gun safety being a big factor after the shooting in El Paso a year ago, … Continue reading →

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CD24 poll: Valenzuela 47, Van Duyne 41

Posted on August 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the Twitters: Big #TX24 numbers in Morning Score this AM @candacefor24 leading @Bethvanduyne 48-41 @JoeBiden leading @realDonaldTrump 49-45 — Cole Leiter (@coleleiter) 6:41 AM – 6 August 2020 You can see the poll info here. The 48-41 and 49-45 … Continue reading →

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Hegar to get a boost

Posted on August 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Nice. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Tuesday that it will spend at least $1 million to help MJ Hegar in her challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. The DSCC said it will be the first time the committee … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Looks like maybe we’ll get a regular dose of these. Democrats enter the peak of the campaign season with advantages that make their path to regaining control of the Senate easier for strategists and handicappers to envision alongside a Joe … Continue reading →

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Biden’s team in Texas

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Get to it, y’all. Joe Biden’s campaign is naming its first hires for the general election in Texas, where polls continue to show a close contest between the presumptive Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump. Biden’s state director will be … Continue reading →

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More on Abbott’s approval rating

Posted on August 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Further evidence of decline. Approval for Gov. Greg Abbott’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic continues to erode, according to a new poll from a consortium of universities. The survey, conducted through Sunday by Harvard, Northeastern, Rutgers and Northwestern universities, found … Continue reading →

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A slightly less rosy view of Democratic prospects

Posted on August 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the latest race ratings from Texas Elects: Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. … Continue reading →

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CD25 poll: Roger Williams 45, Julie Oliver 43

Posted on July 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is genuinely astonishing. To showcase just how extensively Trump’s decline has shifted the playing field, the DCCC shared with the Washington Post details of an in-house poll it conducted of Texas’ deep-red 25th Congressional District that finds Joe Biden … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 45

Posted on July 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The hits keep coming. Another day, another poll showing that Texas is up for grabs despite President Donald Trump’s bluster. Former vice president Joe Biden leads 47-45, with only one in 20 voters still undecided, in a Morning Consult poll … Continue reading →

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Checking in on CD21

Posted on July 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Thar’s the race where Wendy Davis is trying to unseat the mini-Ted Cruz known as Chip Roy, and the pundits are thinking she can do it. All signs are pointing toward a competitive race between incumbent conservative firebrand U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

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CD03 poll: Taylor 43, Seikaly 37

Posted on July 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I expect we’ll see a fair amount of Congressional district polling this cycle. There is a single-digit race underway for Texas’ traditionally red 3rd Congressional District, according to a new poll from the new Democratic nominee’s campaign. The nominee, Lulu … Continue reading →

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A deeper dive into the Texas polls

Posted on July 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Decision Desk: Whenever there is a new poll of Texas released, there are a ton of hot takes on Twitter. Old believers of Texas as the great blue whale for the Democrats move to dismiss the poll, saying that … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

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What Ted Cruz is scared of

Posted on July 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s give him a reason for it. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz delivered a dire message to Texas Republican activists on Saturday about the danger President Donald Trump faces in November here. “This is a real race,” Cruz told the Republican … Continue reading →

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More pressure on Biden to really compete in Texas

Posted on July 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Fine by me. With President Donald Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joe Biden is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and … Continue reading →

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Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

Posted on July 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading →

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2020 primary runoff results: Statewide

Posted on July 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It was a tight race all night, but it looks like MJ Hegar will win. MJ Hegar was holding a 5-percentage-point lead over Royce West on Tuesday night in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. Senate, according to unofficial results. … Continue reading →

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CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Biden 45

Posted on July 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Maybe a tad bit of a letdown after yesterday’s result, but still quite solid. The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 43

Posted on July 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Holy mackeral. Former Vice President Joe Biden has built a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, as unease over Trump’s handling of coronavirus mounts, a new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll has found. If the general … Continue reading →

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Greg Abbott has no one to blame but himself

Posted on July 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s be very clear about this. Gov. Greg Abbott is under increasing political fire from fellow Republicans as well as Democrats as he responds to a sharp rise in coronavirus deaths — a record 112 on Wednesday and 106 on … Continue reading →

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Abbott’s approval rating

Posted on July 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This has gotten a bit of chatter, so let’s take a closer look. We released the remaining results of the June 2020 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll today. This post focuses on Texans’ assessment of the state’s political leaders, the state … Continue reading →

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A bullish take on the State House

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Mike Hailey of Capitol Inside: The wildly unpredictable coronavirus appears to be fueling a massive blue wave that sweeps the Democrats back into power in the Texas House of Representatives with President Donald Trump as their all-time greatest ally. … Continue reading →

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A more extensive look at the state polls

Posted on July 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, I’ve been computing a poll average for the Presidential race in Texas based on post-primary numbers, meaning that I start with the April 25 UT/Trib result and go from there. As of the June 25 Fox poll, … Continue reading →

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The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 46

Posted on July 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And here’s poll number two, which is technically about the Texas Senate race but I’m counting it as a Presidential poll for consistency. Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds that John Cornyn has basically no profile in Texas. Only … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 48, Biden 44

Posted on July 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We had two Presidential polls drop on Thursday. Here’s the first, I’ll do the second for tomorrow. President Donald Trump would beat former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas by 4 percentage points if the election were held today, according … Continue reading →

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What should Joe Biden do in Texas?

Posted on June 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

“Win” would be my preferred answer, but it’s more complicated than that. No matter how frequently it happens, it’s always a bit startling. Ever since February 2019, polls have been coming out indicating that former Vice President Joe Biden is … Continue reading →

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Fox: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on June 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Man, if we keep getting polls that show Joe Biden leading in Texas, we just might have to rethink where this state is politically. Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, … Continue reading →

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