Tag Archives: Election 2016

A closer look at county races, Part 2

Posted on November 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

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The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

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So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

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A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

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A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

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So what happened in the Latino counties?

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s go to the data: County Trump Clinton Trump Biden ============================================= Bexar 240,333 319,550 303,871 440,823 Cameron 29,472 59,402 48,834 63,732 Dimmit 974 2,173 1,384 2,264 El Paso 55,512 147,843 81,235 168,801 Frio 1,856 2,444 2,812 2,421 Hidalgo 48,642 118,809 … Continue reading →

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Omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was up really late last night, and there’s still a lot of votes to be counted. The SOS website was mostly trash, but a lot of county election sites took their sweet, sweet time even reporting any Election Day … Continue reading →

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The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

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A focus on the SCOTX races

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

With so much litigation over a variety of voting issues, the Supreme Court of Texas is in the news a lot these days. Will that mean more attention being paid to the four races for SCOTX positions? The sleepy contests … Continue reading →

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A few thoughts about Election 2020 before Tuesday

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a brain dump, to get this all out there before we find out what happened. Let’s start with this: After the conclusion of three weeks of early voting, 9.7 million Texans have cast ballots, crushing previous early voting totals … Continue reading →

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Once again with Asian-American voters

Posted on November 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Long story in the Trib, on a topic that could use more focus. When Debbie Chen temporarily closed her Houston restaurant in March due to the coronavirus, she was worried about her health and her financial livelihood. But as a … Continue reading →

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Of course Republicans have benefited from voting by mail

Posted on November 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Obviously. And yes, even in recent elections. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to drive millions of Americans to vote by mail this year, a shift that data suggest is underway even in Texas, where only some voters are allowed to … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eighteen: Records were broken

Posted on October 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I skipped Day Seventeen, but since the daily EV totals came in at a more manageable hour last night (since early voting once again ceased at 7 PM), I was able to get the latest totals in. So … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Sixteen: All through the night

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This post is scheduled to publish before 5 AM today. When that happens, voting will still be happening in Harris County. In Harris County this year, residents can vote where the Rockets or Texans play, from the comfort or their … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fifteen: Now with evening hours

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In case you haven’t heard, Texas is in play. It’s six days from a presidential election, and the anchor of the Republican Electoral College coalition—Texas—is a toss-up. That is not just us being goofballs and throwing around dramatic words. “Toss-up” … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fourteen: Where will we end up?

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Because we like starting with tweets: . Welp. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) 5:58 PM – 25 October 2020 That was from Sunday, after the UT-Tyler poll was factored in. As you may know, there have been two polls released … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Thirteen: In the home stretch

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Twitter time: . According to the Texas Secretary of State, 7,193,582 Texans had voted as of Saturday, a turnout of 42.43% of registered voters. Texas turnout for *all* of 2016 (including Election Day) was 8,969,226, so the state is already … Continue reading →

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Please don’t screw up SD19 this time

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s hoping. If elected to the Texas Senate, Roland Gutierrez promises not to end his tenure in federal prison. During a September phone call, the six-term state House rep assured me: “I’ve led my life as a responsible person; my … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Twelve: Second Saturday

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Where we are. Harris County surpassed 1 million ballots cast Friday, setting an early voting record with seven days remaining, in spite of the lingering COVID-19 pandemic and a flurry of lawsuits over the management of the election. The county … Continue reading →

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Overview of Harris County Sheriff’s race

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The explanation for why Sheriff Ed Gonzalez is a big favorite to be re-elected is quite simple, really. County veterans wondered if former Houston police officer-turned politician Ed Gonzalez would be up to the job of sheriff in 2016 after … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eleven: We reach one million

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s take a brief detour to Fort bend County. Fort Bend County voters continue to smash early-voting records — with a greater share of voters turning out so far than in populous Harris and Dallas counties, according to a news … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Ten: Closing in on 2016

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A couple of tweets to get us started: . 1.3 million (25%) ofTX early voters so far did not vote in 2016. #txlege — Keir Murray (@houtopia) 2:40 PM – 21 October 2020 I talked about the likely percentage of … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Nine: Starting to run out of clever subtitles

Posted on October 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now, for something slightly different, Part One: This was hard for Jacob Monty. As a lifelong Republican, the 52-year old Houston attorney has been in the trenches with former President George W. Bush, never voted for a Democrat for … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eight: Any idea what pattern we’ll follow?

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron provides five takeaways from early voting so far. Democrats appear to be doing well in Harris County, but don’t call it a wave yet. Turnout to date has been strong in precincts carried by Trump and Clinton in … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Seven: It’s Day One all over again, sort of

Posted on October 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a mid-day headline that needed some revision by the evening. Harris County is on pace to reach half of of 2016’s total voter turnout by Monday evening, the county clerk reported. By 11 a.m. Monday, the seventh day of … Continue reading →

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PPP: Cornyn 49, Hegar 46

Posted on October 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Of interest. Last week PPP took a look at the Presidential race in Texas, and this week we checked in on the Senate race. MJ Hegar trails John Cornyn just 49-46, making up for the Republican lean of the state … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Six: And now we start the “normal” early voting period

Posted on October 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to jump right into the data here. The Day Six daily EV totals are here. You can find the daily totals for 2008 and 2012 (and 2016 as well, but I’ve got a separate link for it) … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Five: How not to look at the early voting totals

Posted on October 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter on Friday: . Biden needs a rout in Harris County (#Houston) to have any chance of winning TX. We’ve had 3 days of record-shattering turnout and by tonight may have 500k votes. But so far, Biden probably isn’t … Continue reading →

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All those voter registration efforts did what they set out to do

Posted on October 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

News item #1: Texas adds nearly 300,000 more voters in the last two weeks, approaches 17 million voters overall. In just two weeks, Texas added more than 284,000 more voters to its rolls just before the registration deadline and now … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Four: One hundred thousand is the magic number

Posted on October 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Lather, rinse, repeat. The county announced it had passed the 100K mark in a tweet just after 6 p.m. It was the four straight day with more than 100,000 ballots cast by county voters. Those four days now mark the … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Three: It’s still raining voters out there

Posted on October 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

People want to vote. About 1.9 million Texans had cast ballots in-person or by mail as of Wednesday, according to state and county election data, continuing to crush state records for early voting. The 2020 presidential election is expected to … Continue reading →

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