Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #4

Posted on November 25, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

We move now to the first of two open seat At Large races, where the candidates were many and the clarity was lacking. Here’s an abridged look at At Large #4: Dist Ericka Hillyer Baldwin Dolce Javier Plummer ==================================================== A … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #3

Posted on November 24, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Another At Large race, another incumbent in a runoff. Here’s At Large #3: Dist JCGonz Kubosh Marcel Janaeya ==================================== A 2,944 7,730 1,698 2,395 B 2,405 5,417 2,293 4,802 C 5,452 17,022 3,402 9,584 D 3,554 8,903 3,052 6,250 E … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #2

Posted on November 23, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Welcome to At Large #2, the second of three At Large races in which an incumbent is in the runoff. Dist DavidR Davis Griff DeToto Honey ============================================ A 4,570 3,995 1,643 3,575 809 B 5,779 5,416 958 1,921 391 C … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #1

Posted on November 22, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I’m going to take a look at the five At Large Council races as well, since all of them have interesting things to say about what happened. First up is At Large #1, where incumbent Mike Knox will face first … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2019 Mayor’s race

Posted on November 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I know you’ve been waiting for this. I have the draft canvass, I’ve been doing the Excel things, so let’s get down to it. Dist Lovell King Turner Buzbee Boykins Others ==================================================== A 217 3,002 6,481 7,061 646 727 B … Continue reading →

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A reminder about the local legislative races

Posted on September 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s review the facts together. State Rep. Jon Rosenthal wasn’t supposed to win his Texas House seat last year. He was too much of a Democrat for the swath of northwest Harris County that had long elected Republicans. But in … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 SBOE

Posted on April 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 State Board of Education positions, currently divided 10 GOP to 5 Dem. They’re bigger than State Senate and Congressional districts but no one raises any money for them so they’re basically decided by partisan turnout. As with … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 State House

Posted on March 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke won 76 State House districts. Out of 150. Which is a majority. Let me say that again so it can fully sink in. BETO O’ROURKE WON 76 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS. Remember that after the 2016 election, Democrats held … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

Posted on March 20, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading →

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Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

Posted on March 19, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend

Posted on January 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Did you know that Fort Bend County went blue in 2018 as well? Of course you did. Let’s take a closer look at how that happened. Dist Cruz Beto Dikeman Cruz% Beto% Dike% ====================================================== HD26 32,451 33,532 406 48.88% 50.51% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The county candidates

Posted on January 2, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s just dive right in and have a look at the countywide candidates, shall we? Dist Emmett Hidalgo Gatlin Under Emmett% Hidalgo% Gatlin% ============================================================== CD02 150,630 103,625 5,842 5,005 57.91% 39.84% 2.25% CD07 135,016 100,412 4,967 4,819 56.16% 41.77% 2.07% … Continue reading →

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Another straight-ticket truther

Posted on December 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, outgoing Fort Bend DA John Healey! When John Healey began his career as a young prosecutor in Fort Bend County in the early 1980s, Ronald Reagan was president, MTV had just gone on the air and the then-rural county … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The two types of statewide candidates

Posted on December 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When we look at the precinct data in Harris County, we can separate the statewide candidates into two groups. Here’s the first group: Dist Abbott Valdez Tipp Abbott% Valdez% Trump% Clinton% =============================================================== CD02 146,399 112,272 4,345 55.66% 43.40% 52.38% 43.05% … Continue reading →

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The decline and fall of the Republican Party in Harris County

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It can be summed up in this table: Dist Romney Trump Cruz =========================== HD126 62.1% 53.0% 51.5% HD127 69.2% 61.2% 59.5% HD128 72.4% 68.2% 66.8% HD129 64.5% 55.3% 54.0% HD130 75.9% 68.1% 66.0% HD132 58.9% 50.0% 47.9% HD133 68.1% 54.5% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto does Harris County

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

He won pretty much everywhere you looked. So let’s look at the numbers: Dist Cruz Beto Dike Cruz% Beto% Trump% Clint% ============================================================= CD02 132,390 129,160 2,047 50.22% 49.00% 52.38% 43.05% CD07 112,078 129,781 1,843 45.99% 53.25% 47.11% 48.47% CD08 17,552 … Continue reading →

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How Ted Cruz barely hung on

Posted on November 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s check some hot takes on what happened in the Senate race. All in all, Beto improved upon Democratic gains in Texas’ 10 most populous counties, long central to their hopes of turning the state purple. But what about the … Continue reading →

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The Dallas County House battleground

Posted on September 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Lot of seats in play here. [Julie] Johnson is among several Democratic candidates in Dallas hoping national and statewide talk of a blue wave will trickle down to several local state House races. A mix of Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: HCDE Precinct 1

Posted on April 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

After the last precinct analysis post, I got an email from Danny Norris, one of the two candidates in the runoff for HCDE Position 6, Precinct 1, asking if I intended to look at this race. My answer at the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: One of these things is not like the others

Posted on March 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s finish up our look at the primary precinct data with a peek at the Republican side of things. As a reminder, my analysis of the Democratic Senate primary is here, my analysis of the Governor and Lt. Governor races … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Countywide candidates

Posted on March 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We have four – count ’em, four – runoffs for Harris County office nominations for May. Every contested countywide non-judicial primary – that is, everything other than County Judge – is going to overtime. I’m going to look at the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Guv and Lite Guv

Posted on March 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We move now to the Democratic primaries for Governor and Lt. Governor. I did not analyze any of the other Democratic statewide contested primaries, mostly because they were sufficiently low-profile that I didn’t think there was anything of interest to … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto in Harris County

Posted on March 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I now have a canvass of the primaries in Harris County, so you know what that means – time for some precinct analyses. I’ve got a few of these to do, so let’s dive right in. First up, a look … Continue reading →

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The rural/suburban tradeoff

Posted on August 10, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Martin Longman returns to a point he has been making about the way the vote shifted in the 2016 election. Let’s try to be clear about what we mean. Hillary Clinton won a lot of votes in the suburbs from … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Humble ISD

Posted on July 9, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

I’d been meaning to go back to the Humble ISD election in May, where two Project LIFT candidates were running against incumbent members, to see what I could learn. The canvass reports are up on the Harris County Clerk website, … Continue reading →

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We have a candidate in CD02

Posted on June 22, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Meet Todd Litton, the first declared Democratic candidate of which I am aware for CD02, which is entirely within Harris County and which is held by Rep. Ted Poe, who has been there since 2004. I don’t know much about … Continue reading →

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Two (so far) for SD10

Posted on June 19, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s what we learn in this Star-Telegram story about incumbent Sen. Konni Burton’s intent to run for re-election. At least two Democrats already have announced their intention to seek Burton’s seat. Allison Campolo, a research scientist and teaching assistant at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: SBOE districts

Posted on June 12, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 members on the State Board of Education, five Democrats and ten Republicans. Of those ten Republican-held seats, four of them were in districts that were interesting in 2016: Dist Incumbent Clinton Trump Obama Romney ================================================= SBOE5 Mercer … Continue reading →

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Matt Rinaldi holds a swing seat

Posted on June 5, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Just something to keep in mind. State Rep. Matt Rinaldi’s scuffle Monday with Hispanic lawmakers is already putting a bright spotlight on his House district — and whether he can hold on to it in 2018. Rinaldi, an Irving Republican, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on May 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Texas Legislative Council now has full data from the 2016 elections on its site, so this seemed like as good a time as any to take a look at the data from Congressional districts. I’m much more limited in … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The targets for 2018

Posted on March 20, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape. Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas county elections

Posted on March 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is … Continue reading →

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