Tag Archives: CD02

Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading

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January 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

We come to the last of our January finance report roundups. The next one will be in April, for Congressional candidates, which will be our first indicator of who among the repeaters and the newcomers has gotten off to a … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Elisa Cardnell

Meet your first official candidate for CD02. A naval battle just might be on the horizon in one of Houston’s most competitive Congressional districts. On Thursday Navy veteran and science teacher Elisa Cardnell, a Democrat, filed papers with the Federal … Continue reading

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More looking forward to 2020

Gonna have some more of that sweet Congressional election action. Smelling blood after picking up two Texas congressional seats in November – along with Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss in the U.S. Senate race – House Democrats [recently] announced six new … Continue reading

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There sure was a lot of money spent on Congressional races in Texas

If we’re lucky, it will be the start of a trend. Never has Texas seen as much money spent on Congressional campaigns as it did in 2018. New campaign finance data shows that the state didn’t just beat its old … Continue reading

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2020 is starting early

Example One: The calendar just turned to 2019, but the 2020 race for Congressional seats in Texas is already on. A few days after Christmas, San Antonio resident Liz Wahl, 33, a former cable television news anchor, filed papers in … Continue reading

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From the “If at first you don’t succeed” department

Three Dem Congressional candidates from 2018 may try again in 2020. Among the typically deep-red districts that came down to single digits were three races around Harris County. Incumbent Reps. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, and Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land, won by … Continue reading

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The Harris County GOP has not hit bottom yet

I have four thing to say about this. Drubbed. Shellacked. Whooped. Walloped. Routed. However you want to describe November’s midterm election, it was disastrous for Harris County Republicans. They were swept from the remaining countywide posts they held — the other shoe … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 21 Comments

More Congressional retirement speculation

From Roll Call: Life in the minority will be a new experience for most House Republicans next year. And many of them may not remember what happened the last time the GOP lost the House. After the 2006 Democratic wave, … Continue reading

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The next round of redistricting is going to be even more fun

Close races do complicate things. Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. ­But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

On straight tickets and other votes

I have and will continue to have more to say about straight ticket votes. Part of me is reluctant to talk about this stuff, because I feel like we’ve reached a point where straight ticket votes are seen as less … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

So you want to run for something in 2020

You’re an ambitious Democrat in Harris County. You saw what happened these last two elections, and you think it’s your time to step up and run for office. What are your options that don’t involved primarying a Democratic incumbent? 1. … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Beto does Harris County

He won pretty much everywhere you looked. So let’s look at the numbers: Dist Cruz Beto Dike Cruz% Beto% Trump% Clint% ============================================================= CD02 132,390 129,160 2,047 50.22% 49.00% 52.38% 43.05% CD07 112,078 129,781 1,843 45.99% 53.25% 47.11% 48.47% CD08 17,552 … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Initial thoughts: Congress

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading

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Omnibus election report

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading

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October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading

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On the air

You might be seeing some TV ads from Texas Democrats who aren’t Beto O’Rourke or Lizzie Fletcher. There’s Justin Nelson: Attorney Justin Nelson, a candidate for attorney general, on Tuesday became the first — and likely only — Democrat running … Continue reading

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Interview with Scott Cubbler

If you’ve followed this blog in election seasons, you know that while I interview all comers in odd numbered years, I generally (with rare exceptions) limit myself to Democratic candidates in even numbered years. I’m a Democratic precinct chair, and … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Another easy decision

Remember how I said the Chron’s endorsement of Kim Olson over Sid Miller was the easiest call they’d have to make this cycle? The one true competitor for that title is the AG race, where Justin Nelson is a LeBron-level … Continue reading

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Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading

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Harvey and the Congressional races

This was from a couple of days ago. A year ago this week, Dayna Steele was standing in 29 inches of water inside her Seabrook home. Her family had already made it through Hurricane Ike in 2008, when the water … Continue reading

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Crosstab versus 538

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading

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From the “Many are called, but few are chosen” department

Here are your non-standard choices for the November election. Independent candidates Candidates unaffiliated with a political party are allowed access to the general election ballot as long as they file the necessary paperwork and gather a certain number of signatures — depending … Continue reading

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading

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The rising cost of losing

Womp womp. The price of losing keeps going up for Republican Kathaleen Wall. Four months after losing her campaign for Congress, the Houston Republican had to put yet another $150,000 of her own money into her campaign to pay for … Continue reading

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Dems keep posting very strong finance reports

Wow. There are few bigger warning signs for a member of Congress that their re-election may be in doubt than when a challenger outraises them. In Texas, it just happened to seven incumbents, all Republicans. Since last week, when U.S. … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Kulkarni reports $234K raised in Q2

From the Inbox: Democratic nominee for U.S. Congress, Sri Preston Kulkarni, raised over $400,000 in receipts to date for his campaign to unseat incumbent Pete Olson (R-TX). This is the largest total ever for a Democratic candidate for the current … Continue reading

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What the prognosticators are saying about Texas

I’ve covered some of this before, but with Daily Kos releasing their initial House race rankings, let’s see how the national prognosticators are classifying Texas Congressional races. Daily Kos Elections Tossup – CD23 Lean R – CD07, CD32 Likely R … Continue reading

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 33 Comments

Where CD02 and CD07 stand

The race in CD02 gets a little attention from the Chron. The demographic elements that make the 7th Congressional District in Houston one of the hottest midterm elections in the nation also run through a neighboring area that has some … Continue reading

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Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading

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