Tag Archives: CD10

One more for CD24

Another contested primary. Democrat Candace Valenzuela, a 34-year-old Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member, is launching a campaign Monday against Texas GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant, one of the party’s top targets in 2020. She will face an uphill battle for her … Continue reading

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Here comes the DCCC

National Dems really are serious about competing in Texas next year. National Democrats are ratcheting up their Texas offensive yet again ahead of 2020. The chairwoman of U.S. House Democratic campaign arm announced Tuesday morning that her committee will open … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018, Election 2020 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

What about Wendy?

If not Beto and not Joaquin… Wendy Davis of Texas said Tuesday she is considering a U.S. Senate run in 2020 but is waiting to see whether another high-profile Democrat, Rep. Joaquin Castro, goes through with challenging Republican incumbent John … Continue reading

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January 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

We come to the last of our January finance report roundups. The next one will be in April, for Congressional candidates, which will be our first indicator of who among the repeaters and the newcomers has gotten off to a … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Elisa Cardnell

Meet your first official candidate for CD02. A naval battle just might be on the horizon in one of Houston’s most competitive Congressional districts. On Thursday Navy veteran and science teacher Elisa Cardnell, a Democrat, filed papers with the Federal … Continue reading

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More looking forward to 2020

Gonna have some more of that sweet Congressional election action. Smelling blood after picking up two Texas congressional seats in November – along with Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss in the U.S. Senate race – House Democrats [recently] announced six new … Continue reading

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The first targets for 2020

We’ve already agreed that the 2020 election season has begun, so a little attack advertising over the shutdown seems like a good play National Democrats have five Texas Republican congressmen in their crosshairs as they begin the 2020 election cycle … Continue reading

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From the “If at first you don’t succeed” department

Three Dem Congressional candidates from 2018 may try again in 2020. Among the typically deep-red districts that came down to single digits were three races around Harris County. Incumbent Reps. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, and Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land, won by … Continue reading

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The Harris County GOP has not hit bottom yet

I have four thing to say about this. Drubbed. Shellacked. Whooped. Walloped. Routed. However you want to describe November’s midterm election, it was disastrous for Harris County Republicans. They were swept from the remaining countywide posts they held — the other shoe … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 21 Comments

More Congressional retirement speculation

From Roll Call: Life in the minority will be a new experience for most House Republicans next year. And many of them may not remember what happened the last time the GOP lost the House. After the 2006 Democratic wave, … Continue reading

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The changing tides in Central Texas

From the Statesman: Six Democrats came within 5 points or fewer in six Texas races, including three districts in Central Texas where Republicans traditionally win easily. Democrats now hold 13 of 36 Texas congressional seats. “This is about persistence. This … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Who might be next to retire from Congress?

We may see some more exits in the coming years, some voluntary and some not. Retirement talk is generally speculative until an incumbent makes an official announcement. But many Republican operatives bet that U.S. Rep. Mac Thornberry, the most senior … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018, Election 2020 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The next round of redistricting is going to be even more fun

Close races do complicate things. Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. ­But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

So you want to run for something in 2020

You’re an ambitious Democrat in Harris County. You saw what happened these last two elections, and you think it’s your time to step up and run for office. What are your options that don’t involved primarying a Democratic incumbent? 1. … Continue reading

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Initial thoughts: Congress

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Omnibus election report

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Top to bottom Congressional fundraising prowess

I have three things to say about this. Standing before a packed crowd at the Austin City Limits Music Festival earlier this month, Julie Oliver delivered an impassioned speech highlighting her support for marijuana legalization and universal health care. “Are … Continue reading

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October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Incumbency is no advantage, part 1

A trio of Congressional endorsements, beginning with Steven David in CD08: A Democratic candidate hasn’t run for the 8th Congressional District since 2012, so no doubt this will be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, voters should back challenger Steven David for … Continue reading

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Still obstacles to voting at Prairie View

The previous problems we talked about are resolved, at least for now, but it’s still harder to vote at PVAMU than it needs to be. Denise Mattox, president of the Waller County Democratic Club, called the new rules a “treatment” … Continue reading

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Prairie View voting dispute resolved

Good news. Prairie View A&M University students will not have to fill out additional registration paperwork before casting their ballots, a move that allays the concerns of Democrats who worried long lines would dissuade students from voting. The news, announced … Continue reading

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What the hell is going on in Waller County?

From Josh Marshall at TPM: Here’s a troubling story out of Texas. Democrat Mike Siegel is running against Rep. Michael T. McCaul (R) in Texas’s 10th district. This evening I saw a tweet from Siegel which said: “Just learned that … Continue reading

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Crosstab versus 538

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

What the prognosticators are saying about Texas

I’ve covered some of this before, but with Daily Kos releasing their initial House race rankings, let’s see how the national prognosticators are classifying Texas Congressional races. Daily Kos Elections Tossup – CD23 Lean R – CD07, CD32 Likely R … Continue reading

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 33 Comments

Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading

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2018 primary runoff results: Congress and Legislature

All results are here. I began drafting this around 9:30 when there were still a bunch of precincts out, but with the exception of the tossup in CD25, all of the Congressional races were pretty clear by then: CD03: Lorie … Continue reading

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Runoff races, part 1: Congress

I looked at most of these races after the filing deadline here and here. Here’s a reminder about who’s still in. CD03 Lorie Burch – Finance report Sam Johnson – Finance report First round: Burch 49.61%, Johnson 28.68% Burch was … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Runoff time

The Chron goes for Lizzie Fletcher in CD07. United States Representative, District 7: Lizzie Pannill Fletcher Democrats have a serious chance of knocking Republican Congressman John Culberson out of the seat he has occupied since 2001. The 7th Congressional District … Continue reading

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Interview with Mike Siegel

Early voting for the primary runoffs begins in a week, running from Monday through Friday, with Tuesday the 22nd being the vote-at-your-precinct-location day. I’ll have more information about that later, but for now I have one more interview to present. … Continue reading

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