Tag Archives: Election 2012

Don’t expect any surprises in the judicial races

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s a simple reason why the Democratic candidates and incumbents are expected to win all the judicial races in Harris County, as they did in 2016 and 2018. I’ll tell you why in a minute, but see if you can … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, judicial races, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

Endorsement watch: The Susan Collins of Texas

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Three things in life are certain: Death, taxes, and certain Chron endorsements. The voters in state House District 134 — a swing district that covers all or parts of River Oaks, Bellaire and Meyerland and includes the Texas Medical Center … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged abortion, Ann Johnson, campus carry, Election 2012, Election 2020, endorsements, gay rights, gun control, HD134, immigration, Medicaid, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

Posted on September 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD03, CD06, CD25, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, Lulu Seikaly, Mitt Romney, polls, Stephen Daniel, Ted Cruz, Texas, Van Taylor | Comments Off

CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD21, CD31, Chip Roy, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Joe Kopser, John Carter, John Cornyn, Libertarian Party, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Wendy Davis, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Another look at the County Commissioner race

Posted on September 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the most consequential local race on the ballot this year. Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat. In that half century, a parade of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michael Moore, redistricting, Steve Radack, Texas, Tom Ramsey, voter registration | 1 Comment

A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 4 Comments

As goes Tarrant, 2020 edition

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, old friend. Shortly after Democrat Beto O’Rourke launched his campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, he made several visits to Tarrant County in North Texas to press the message that if he could flip this county, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Beverly Powell, CD06, CD24, Congress, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Konni Burton, polls, President, redistricting, SD10, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | 4 Comments

2020 Primary Runoff Early Voting, Second Tuesday: A history of Democratic primary runoffs

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday I said that the turnout so far in the 2020 Democratic primary runoff was already historic. Today I’m going to show my work on that. Herewith is the 21st century history of Democratic primary runoff turnout for Harris County: … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, coronavirus, early voting, Election 2002, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, face masks, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, lawsuit, primaries, Railroad Commission, runoff, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

Interview with Rep. Chris Turner

Posted on July 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve done two interviews about redistricting so far, with both of them focused on the litigation aspect of it, which in turn had a focus on Congress. Today I want to pay more attention to the Legislature, which is not … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged Chris Turner, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2020, HD101, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 1992, Election 1996, Election 2000, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Green Party, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Libertarian Party, polls, President, Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, Texas, write-in candidate | 4 Comments

UT/Trib: Trump 49, Biden 44

Posted on April 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Our first post-primary poll. Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden by five points in Texas if the presidential race were held now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. In a Trump-Biden contest, Democratic and Republican voters overwhelmingly … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Governor, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, polls, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, Wendy Davis | 17 Comments

Coronavirus and the Census

Posted on March 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Oh, man, does this have the potential to be devastating. In some corners of the state, the meticulous planning spanned more than two years. Detailed maps of Texas communities were pored over. A ground game to knock on doors was … Continue reading →

Posted in The great state of Texas | Tagged Austin, Census, Commerce Department, Dallas, El Paso, Election 2012, Election 2022, Houston, Margaret Wallace Brown, primaries, redistricting, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

Posted on March 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Akilah Bacy, Al Edwards, Alexandra Smoots-Hogan, Anna Eastman, Borris Miles, Candace Valenzuela, CD03, CD10, CD13, CD15, CD17, CD23, CD24, CD27, CD31, CD32, CD34, Cheryl Elliott Thornton, Congress, David Jaramillo, Democratic primary, Eddie Lucio, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gabby Garcia, Governor, Greg Sagan, Gus Trujillo, Harold Dutton, HD105, HD109, HD119, HD133, HD137, HD138, HD142, HD146, HD148, HD27, HD37, HD42, HD45, HD47, HD64, HD76, HD95, Helen Delgadillo, Jenifer Pool, Jennifer Ramos, Jerry Davis, judicial races, Kim Olson, Kimberly McLeod, Lite Gov, Liz Campos, Lulu Seikaly, Michelle Palmer, Mike Siegel, Penny Shaw, Pritash Gandhi, Railroad Commission, Rick Kennedy, Roland Gutierrez, Sara Stapleton-Barrera, SBOE, SD17, SD19, SD27, Sean McCaffity, Senate, Texas, The Lege, Xochil Peña Rodriguez | 1 Comment

Let’s talk turnout

Posted on March 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a few random bits and pieces about turnout from the primaries. On the one hand, I think it’s great that Dems got the turnout that we did, in Harris County and around the state. On the other hand, I … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Bexar County, Brazoria County, Collin County, Dallas County, Democratic primary, Denton County, early voting, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elizabeth Warren, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hidalgo County, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Montgomery County, Pete Buttigieg, President, primaries, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | Comments Off

Trautman apologizes for the long lines

Posted on March 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A very good start. Harris County Clerk Diane Trautman is taking “full responsibility” for the long lines and wait times that bogged down election night voting and forced some voters to wait more than six hours to cast their ballots. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Democratic primary, Diane Trautman, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Texas, turnout | 6 Comments

Primary early voting: Comparing 2020 to 2016

Posted on March 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks into the early voting numbers around the state. Experts cautioned that early voting data should be taken with a grain of salt — for one because the subset of people who vote early aren’t necessarily representative of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Bell County, Bexar County, Brazoria County, Brazos County, Collin County, Comal County, Dallas County, Democratic primary, Denton County, early voting, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Guadalupe County, Harris County, Hays County, Hidalgo County, Lubbock, McLennan County, Montgomery County, Nueces County, primaries, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Final 2020 primary early voting report: “Healthy but not historic”

Posted on March 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Sounds about right. Democratic primary voters surged to the polls in Harris County on Friday, surpassing turnout from 2016 but falling well short of their record-setting performance in 2008. Republican primary voters, meanwhile, turned out in larger-than-expected numbers thanks to … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, Texas, turnout | 2 Comments

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Ten: Come hell or high water

Posted on February 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday was quite the day, wasn’t it? People did still vote, which is nice. Here’s the Day Ten report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The totals after Day Ten: Year Mail Early Total … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Houston, primaries, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Nine

Posted on February 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Getting close to the finish line here. Two more days of early voting to go. Here’s the Day Nine report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The totals after Day Four: Year Mail Early … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

What is “safe”?

Posted on February 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Saw this on Twitter, and it got me thinking: For those upset about critique of establishment politics: There are D reps in SAFE blue seats who side w/ the NRA, are anti-LGBT+, and yet are protected because they advance the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD28, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Henry Cuellar, Hillary Clinton, Jessica Cisneros, Kirk Watson, precinct analysis, President, SD14, Senate, Texas | 2 Comments

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Eight: It starts to turn upward

Posted on February 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the Day Eight report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The totals after Day Four: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 5,695 16,671 22,366 2016 10,970 34,419 45,389 2018 12,914 36,185 49,099 2020 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, Texas, turnout | 4 Comments

Who will carry the flag in CD31?

Posted on February 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This primary interests me mostly to see if we can get a truly viable challenger in this district or not. No one person has emerged yet, that’s for sure. Democrats who want to be Republican U.S. Rep. John Carter’s challenger … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD31, Christine Eady Mann, Congress, Dan Jangigian, Democratic primary, Donna Imam, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Hanke, fundraising, John Carter, MJ Hegar, Tammy Young, Texas, Williamson County | Comments Off

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Seven

Posted on February 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And we’re back at it. Here’s the Day Seven report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The totals after Day Four: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 5,609 14,063 19,672 2016 10,180 28,367 38,547 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, primaries, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Six: On to Week Two

Posted on February 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We’re back from the weekend, where the only votes tallied are in-person. We have five more days of early voting to go. Here’s the Day Six report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, Texas, turnout | 2 Comments

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Four: First Friday

Posted on February 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We are at the end of the first business week, shortened by the holiday on Monday. It’s been a brisk week, especially compared to other years, but there should be a lot more to come. Here’s the Day Four report … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Three: Midweek meandering

Posted on February 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have any clever openings today, so once again let’s just jump right in. Here’s the Day Three report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The totals after Day Three: Year Mail Early … Continue reading →

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Two: In for the long haul

Posted on February 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s jump right in. Here’s the Day Two report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. As of Day One from those years : Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 5,100 3,035 8,135 2016 7,191 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries | Comments Off

2020 Primary Early Voting, Day One: Off to a quick start

Posted on February 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And we’re off. On an overcast and drizzly day in much of Texas, early voting for the 2020 primary elections in some of the state’s most populous counties was up over turnout four years ago, despite warnings by political watchers … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, Texas, turnout | 4 Comments

Five questions for the primary

Posted on February 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Five questions I thought of, anyway. With my own answers, some of which are admittedly on the weaselish side. Feel free to discuss/disagree/ask your own questions/etc. 1. What kind of turnout are we going to have? The short answer is … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bernie Sanders, Congress, David Dewhurst, Democratic primary, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, polls, President, primaries, Railroad Commission, Republican Party, runoff, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 15 Comments

2020 Primary Early Voting begins today

Posted on February 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We don’t have a long primary season in Texas – the filing deadline was barely two months ago, though to be sure some candidates have been running for much longer than that – and the first part of it is … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Brazoria County, Democratic primary, Diane Trautman, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Korean American Voters League, Montgomery County, primaries, Stan Stanart, Texas, turnout, Waller County | 1 Comment

HISD takes a step towards a bond referendum

Posted on February 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a step. If there’s to be a bond referendum on the ballot, this year or later, they’ll have to vote again to authorize that. Houston ISD trustees kept hopes alive for a November bond election during Thursday night’s board … Continue reading →

Posted in School days | Tagged Board of Managers, bond referendum, bonds, Dani Hernandez, Election 2012, Election 2020, Election 2021, Elizabeth Santos, Grenita Lathan, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, Judith Cruz, schools, Texas Education Agency | Comments Off

UT/Trib: Two out of three polls say Bernie is moving up

Posted on February 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is Bernie Sanders’ best poll result in Texas so far. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has doubled his support among Democratic voters in Texas and now leads the race for that party’s presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2020, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Mitt Romney, Pete Buttigieg, polls, President, Texas | 4 Comments

Looking ahead in CD07

Posted on January 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This story is primarily about the Republican primary in CD07. I don’t care about that race or those candidates, but there’s some good stuff at the end that I wanted to comment on. Since she’s taken office, some Houston Republicans … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, CD10, CD22, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Jason Westin, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Mitt Romney, President, redistricting, Texas | 7 Comments

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