Tag Archives: turnout

Precinct analysis: Statewide judicial

Posted on December 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 We’re going to take a look at the seven statewide judicial races in this post, with all of the districts considered so far grouped together. You’re about … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, Bert Richardson, Brandon Birmingham, Brett Busby, Court of Criminal Appeals, David Newell, Election 2020, Elizabeth Frizell, Gisela Triana, Harris County, Jane Bland, Jeff Boyd, judicial races, Kathy Cheng, Kevin Yeary, Libertarian Party, Nathan Hecht, precinct analysis, Staci Williams, Supreme Court, Texas, Tina Clinton, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Comparing to 2012 and 2016

Posted on December 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts I had meant to get to this last week, but SeditionPalooza took up too much of my time, so here we are. The intent of this post is to compare vote … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Christi Craddick, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eva Guzman, Harris County, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD139, HD140, HD141, HD142, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD146, HD147, HD148, HD149, HD150, Hillary Clinton, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, turnout, Wayne Christian | 4 Comments

Counties of interest, part seven: West Texas

Posted on December 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas Part 6 – Central Texas Last entry in this series, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Abilene, Amarillo, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Jones County, Kerr County, Kerrville, Lubbock, Midland, Midland County, Odessa, Potter County, precinct analysis, President, San Angelo, Taylor County, Texas, Tom Green County, turnout, Wichita County, Wichita Falls | 2 Comments

I remain pessimistic about the chances of good voting bills passing

Posted on November 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This Trib story suggests that with Republicans doing well in the high turnout 2020 election, and with the emergency measures that were implemented to expand voting access, the odds of getting a bill passed to make some forms of voting … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged absentee ballots, Allen West, Bexar County, Chris Hollins, coronavirus, curbside voting, Dan Patrick, Donald Trump, drop off boxes, early voting, Election 2020, Greg Bonnen, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Justin Rodriguez, lawsuit, Paul Bettencourt, Steven Hotze, Texas, Texas Civil Rights Project, The Lege, turnout, voter ID, voter registration, voter suppression | 2 Comments

Beware color-coded county maps

Posted on November 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I spotted this on Twitter the other day and it got me thinking: . Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama’s 3.86 pt win in 2012. He’ll exceed it soon. They won by … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Bastrop County, Caldwell County, Comal County, Donald Trump, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Johnson County, King County, Lubbock, Medina County, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

A high level look at the changing suburbs

Posted on November 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a broad and high-level look at what I’m digging into now. Although they didn’t get the blue wave they expected, Democrats narrowed the gap with Republicans in five of the most competitive and populous suburban counties in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Chambers County, Collin County, Dallas County, demography, Denton County, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Johnson County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, Parker County, President, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Counties of interest, part two: Around the Metroplex

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post. County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift ========================================================================= Collin 196,888 101,415 201,014 140,624 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Collin County, Dallas County, demography, Denton County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Ellis County, Johnson County, Kaufman County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Rockwall County, Tarrant County, Texas, turnout, Wise County | 17 Comments

The poll workers’ stories

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Some good news. With a record 2,431,457 registered voters on the rolls in Harris County, there were several reasons poll workers expected a huge turnout and they got it, but not on Election Day. Two judges working two of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged early voting, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Texas, turnout, voting centers | Comments Off

The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, I-35, Joe Biden, John McCain, Jones County, Mitt Romney, President, Tarrant County, Texas, turnout, voter registration, Williamson County | 3 Comments

So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 2 Comments

Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Cecile Richards, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Joe Biden, judicial races, Julian Castro, Lina Hidalgo, Lite Gov, marijuana, Medicaid, Mitch McConnell, President, primaries, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 6 Comments

A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Dallas County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, HD137, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jolt Initiative, Latino voting, polls, precinct analysis, President, Starr County, Texas, turnout | 11 Comments

A few observations from the final unofficial countywide data

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is still unofficial, and there will still be some overseas/military ballots to be counted as well as some provisional ballots to be cured, but the count of the votes cast by Election Day is over, and we have the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Akilah Bacy, Ann Johnson, CD07, CD22, Congress, early voting, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Calanni, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, Jon Rosenthal, Libertarian Party, Lizzie FLetcher, precinct analysis, President, Sarah Davis, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 3 Comments

Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, President, provisional ballots, redistricting, Sheriff, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Grady Yarbrough, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD132, HD133, HD135, HD138, HD150, Jack Morman, Jane Bland, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, turnout, voter registration, Wendy Davis | 8 Comments

So what happened in the Latino counties?

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s go to the data: County Trump Clinton Trump Biden ============================================= Bexar 240,333 319,550 303,871 440,823 Cameron 29,472 59,402 48,834 63,732 Dimmit 974 2,173 1,384 2,264 El Paso 55,512 147,843 81,235 168,801 Frio 1,856 2,444 2,812 2,421 Hidalgo 48,642 118,809 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Bexar County, Cameron County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, Frio County, Hidalgo County, Hillary Clinton, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Latino voting, Maverick County, Nueces County, polls, President, Presidio County, Starr County, Texas, turnout, Webb County, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 3 Comments

Followup omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Wanted to clear up some loose ends from the late night/early morning post and add a couple of things I’d missed the first time around. I’ll have a longer “thoughts and reactions” post probably tomorrow. – The district results from … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, absentee ballots, Amparo Guerra, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Congress, curbside voting, early voting, First Court of Appeals, Galveston, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, Jane Robinson, President, provisional ballots, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Tamika Craft, Texas, The Lege, Third Court of Appeals, turnout, Veronica Rivas-Molloy | 4 Comments

Omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was up really late last night, and there’s still a lot of votes to be counted. The SOS website was mostly trash, but a lot of county election sites took their sweet, sweet time even reporting any Election Day … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Brandy Chambers, CD23, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Fagan, Fort Bend County, Gina Calanni, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, Israel Garcia, Joanna Cattanach, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Latino voting, Michael Moore, Mike Schofield, Morgan Meyer, Pete Flores, polls, President, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, redistricting, Roland Gutierrez, Russ Ridgway, Sarah Davis, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Sheriff, straight ticket voting, Ted Heap, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, Tony Gonzales, turnout | 16 Comments

The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

A focus on the SCOTX races

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

With so much litigation over a variety of voting issues, the Supreme Court of Texas is in the news a lot these days. Will that mean more attention being paid to the four races for SCOTX positions? The sleepy contests … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, Beto O'Rourke, Brett Busby, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gisela Triana, Jane Bland, Jeff Boyd, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Kathy Cheng, MJ Hegar, Nathan Hecht, polls, Staci Williams, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 2 Comments

Today is Election Day

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It almost feels unreal, doesn’t it? Like some people have been saying while on line at voting locations, we’ve been waiting four whole years for this. Now it’s here, Texas is considered a swing state, the Lege is in play, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Chris Hollins, Congress, early voting, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Joe Biden, MJ Hegar, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voting centers | 2 Comments

A few thoughts about Election 2020 before Tuesday

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a brain dump, to get this all out there before we find out what happened. Let’s start with this: After the conclusion of three weeks of early voting, 9.7 million Texans have cast ballots, crushing previous early voting totals … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Chris Hollins, Collin County, Comal County, coronavirus, Denton County, Donald Trump, drop off boxes, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Fort Bend County, Greg Abbott, Guadalupe County, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Hays County, Joe Biden, lawsuit, Montgomery County, polls, President, Texas, Travis County, turnout, voter ID, voter registration, Williamson County | 16 Comments

November 2020 Early Voting Day Eighteen: Records were broken

Posted on October 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I skipped Day Seventeen, but since the daily EV totals came in at a more manageable hour last night (since early voting once again ceased at 7 PM), I was able to get the latest totals in. So … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Chris Hollins, curbside voting, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 6 Comments

November 2020 Early Voting Day Sixteen: All through the night

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This post is scheduled to publish before 5 AM today. When that happens, voting will still be happening in Harris County. In Harris County this year, residents can vote where the Rockets or Texans play, from the comfort or their … Continue reading →

More investment from Bloomberg

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, better late than never. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is funding a last-minute ad blitz on behalf of Joe Biden in Texas and Ohio, providing a boost to the former vice president as polls and a flutter of late campaign … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged advertising, attack ads, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, MJ Hegar, Ohio, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

November 2020 Early Voting Day Fifteen: Now with evening hours

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In case you haven’t heard, Texas is in play. It’s six days from a presidential election, and the anchor of the Republican Electoral College coalition—Texas—is a toss-up. That is not just us being goofballs and throwing around dramatic words. “Toss-up” … Continue reading →

NYT/Siena: Trump 47, Biden 43

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Possibly the last poll of interest for the cycle. President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs but … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

Bloomberg drops some money in the RRC race

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I have four things to say about this. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has made a late donation of $2.6 million to the Democratic nominee for railroad commissioner, Chrysta Castañeda, providing a massive fundraising boost in a race for the oil and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged campaign finance reports, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2020, fundraising, Green Party, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, Libertarian Party, Michael Bloomberg, polls, President, Railroad Commission, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

UH-Hobby: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a poll result that stands in contrast to the others we have seen lately. President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by more than five points among likely voters in Texas, according to a poll released … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, Bert Richardson, Chrysta Castaneda, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2020, Elizabeth Frizell, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, Nathan Hecht, polls, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout, UH | 29 Comments

Here comes Kamala

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a little fuel to the “Texas is in play” fire. Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s running mate and the California U.S. senator, will be visiting Texas on Friday, according to an email Biden’s campaign sent to Democratic lawmakers in Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged early voting, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, polls, President, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

November 2020 Early Voting Day Fourteen: Where will we end up?

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Because we like starting with tweets: . Welp. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) 5:58 PM – 25 October 2020 That was from Sunday, after the UT-Tyler poll was factored in. As you may know, there have been two polls released … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Chris Hollins, curbside voting, Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Joe Biden, polls, Texas, turnout, voter registration | Comments Off

November 2020 Early Voting Day Thirteen: In the home stretch

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Twitter time: . According to the Texas Secretary of State, 7,193,582 Texans had voted as of Saturday, a turnout of 42.43% of registered voters. Texas turnout for *all* of 2016 (including Election Day) was 8,969,226, so the state is already … Continue reading →

Please don’t screw up SD19 this time

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s hoping. If elected to the Texas Senate, Roland Gutierrez promises not to end his tenure in federal prison. During a September phone call, the six-term state House rep assured me: “I’ve led my life as a responsible person; my … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Pete Flores, Pete Gallego, Roland Gutierrez, SD19, Senate, special election, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

Bill Kelly: Voting Matters

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

(Note: The following is a guest post that was submitted to me. I occasionally solicit guest posts, and also occasionally accept them from people I trust.) The national headlines have highlighted the increased turnout among Harris County voters, and rightfully … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, Local politics | Tagged Bill Kelley, Carol Alvarado, Chris Hollins, early voting, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Greg Abbott, guest post, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration, voting centers | 1 Comment

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