Off the Kuff | Knowledge Is Good

Annise Parker is in your Internets

Posted on October 26, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

She’s in mine, anyway. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but an awful lot of the websites I surf to now feature a familiar face looking back at me:

Here’s another:

Clearly, she’s seeking to dominate the liberal nerd humor vote. Of course, there are Facebook ads:

Facebook is the one place I’ve seen other ads. Ben Hall has placed a few, mostly touting his Facebook page. I know some other candidates have spent money on Facebook ads, but as yet I’ve not seen them.

You know how at the bottom of articles on some websites there’s a listing of “related” stories that you might want to read, that are mostly sponsored links? She’s there, too.

And not just in the Chronicle:

Even out in LaLa Land:

Too bad they can’t control the stories they get associated with. Some of them might be hard to compete with for clicks.

Anyway. Web advertising is hardly new, though this particular tactic is one I don’t recall seeing before. They’ve clearly done a good job of targeting, since it’s hardly a coincidence all these things appeared for my benefit. I don’t know how expensive this is – clearly, Team Parker dropped a decent amount of cash on it – but it seems likely to me that doing this on a perhaps more modest scale would be viable for many campaigns. Of course, I’m assuming people take notice of these things, never mind click on them. Have you been noticing these ads? What do you think about them?

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged advertising, Annise Parker, Election 2013, Facebook, Houston, Internet, Mayor | 7 Comments

Friday random ten: Because I said so, that’s why

Posted on October 25, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Back to normal randomness this week, as I find myself themeless.

1. March E.W. Scripps – Trinity University Wind Symphony
2. Lucky Ball And Chain – They Might Be Giants
3. Jump In The River – Sinead O’Connor
4. Vivaldi: Double Mandolin Concerto – Yo-Yo Ma and Bobby McFerrin
5. Lithium – Nirvana
6. My Old School – Miles Cool
7. Blood Count – Joe Henderson
8. The Magnificent Seven – Joe Grushecky and The Houserockers
9. Why Can’t It Wait Till Morning? – Phil Collins
10. Vx Fx Dx – Michelle Shocked

That’s the kind of random I like. Happy Friday, y’all.

Posted in Music | Tagged Friday random ten | Comments Off

Up to the judge in the abortion lawsuit trial

Posted on October 25, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

We expect a quick ruling.

With days remaining until new abortion regulations take effect in Texas, attorneys for abortion providers and the state of Texas presented their final arguments Wednesday on whether those restrictions meet constitutional muster.

“The result is much more obvious to each side than it is to me,” said U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel, who is presiding over a case in which the abortion providers’ attorneys are seeking to block two of the provisions state lawmakers approved in July. “I recognize the clock is ticking toward October the 29th. I think both sides raised strong issues, and I will get a final judgment out as quickly as I can get a final judgment out.”

The plaintiffs, who represent the majority of abortion providers in Texas, including four Planned Parenthood affiliates, Whole Woman’s Health and other independent abortion providers, have asked the court for an injunction to block the implementation of two provisions in House Bill 2 that would take effect Oct. 29: a requirement that doctors who perform abortion have active admitting privileges at a hospital within 30 miles of the facility, and that doctors follow the FDA regimen, rather than a commonly used evidenced-based protocol, for drug-induced abortions.

Yeakel will be the first judge — but probably not the last — to rule on whether the provisions are constitutional. Yeakel, who gave no specific indication Wednesday on when he would rule, said Monday that he expects that whichever side is disappointed with his ruling to appeal the decision, probably all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

See here and here for more on trial testimony. I won’t be surprised if Judge Yeakel issues his ruling today, but it may wait till Monday. Whatever the case, and however he rules, it’s going to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which based on past history probably already has its opinion upholding the law written and ready to be handed down. Just keep reminding yourself that the ultimate remedy is at the ballot box.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged abortion, Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, lawsuit, Senate, special session, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Mostly good news for Apollo

Posted on October 25, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

That’s the story so far.

Terry Grier

A three-year, multimillion-dollar experiment to improve 20 struggling HISD schools yielded big gains in math and limited progress in reading, according to partial results of a study released Wednesday.

Now, Superintendent Terry Grier and the school board face decisions over what, if any, changes to make to the district’s nationally watched Apollo program, particularly to improve students’ literacy skills and perhaps to reduce the price tag.

“You’ve got to keep trying different things on Apollo,” said the researcher, Harvard University economist Roland Fryer. “We are not all the way there yet. Even if we were all the way there, I bet you can do it … cheaper.”

[…]

“We’ve had a lot of success with this – it far exceeded my expectations – but we have 282 schools,” Grier said, acknowledging complaints that Apollo was too narrowly focused.

Grier said he’d like to focus on helping younger students before they fall too far behind and on cutting costs to reach more children across the district. The superintendent’s ideas include year-round kindergarten for some, tutoring before fourth grade and less expensive online tutoring.

Fryer, who helped design the Apollo program, plans to release his final study on Nov. 1.

He shared a nine-page executive summary and presented an overview of his findings, which mirrored his earlier research, in Houston Wednesday.

“The bottom line is, math is very encouraging,” Fryer said. “Reading is still puzzling to me. It’s puzzling to a lot of people.”

In math, the stubborn achievement gap between minority and white students is on pace to close this year at the Apollo elementary schools, Fryer found. For older students, the gap in math performance has closed by roughly half.

In reading, Fryer said, the gains were significantly less, with the achievement gap narrowing by 10 percent to 20 percent.

School Zone has a copy of Dr. Fryer’s executive summary. Cost is definitely an issue – as the story notes, the HISD tax rate hike is due in part to the district paying for a continuation of Apollo out of general revenue. Initial funding came from grants and private donors. If this is to be sustainable going forward, HISD will need to get the cost of the program under control. It’s worth it to pay for a program that works, but ideally it would be district-wide, and it’s far from clear if that can be affordable. As for private donations, I wonder if the data Dr. Fryer has now provided is satisfactory to the Houston Endowment, which has been sitting on a $3 million check. I think there’s a lot here to be optimistic about, but as always it will come down to what we can and are willing to pay for. Hair Balls has more.

Posted in School days | Tagged budget, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, property taxes, Roland Fryer, schools, Terry Grier | 1 Comment

No, Texans!

Posted on October 25, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

If you regularly see Metro buses around town, you might have noticed that during the football season they will sometimes display “GO TEXANS!” on their marquees, rotating with their route information. They display similar messages for other local teams during their seasons as well. Harris County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez wants them to stop doing that.

It’s nothing personal against the Houston Texans, the Astros, Rockets or Dynamo. Harris County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez just wants Metro to stop picking winners and losers with its digital bus marquees.

This spring, after Sanchez raised concerns, the Metro board of directors adopted a policy with pre-approved messages for display on the destination signs on the fronts and sides of its buses, including ones covering five “major” local sporting teams. Some of the messages, such as “Happy Holidays,” are appropriate, Sanchez said, but others, such as “Go Texans,” are not.

“We have great athletic teams, there’s a lot of great things in this city, but it’s troubling when an appointed, non-answerable board of directors of a publicly funded institution like Metro gets to pick and choose what corporations get to have their name placed on our infrastructure,” Sanchez said, noting that he has only seen the “Go Texans” message.

The complaint is similar to one Sanchez had a few years ago when the back halves of some Houston Police Department patrol cars were made to look like Yellow Cab taxis for what was supposed to be a public service announcement to deter drunken driving. The so-called wraps included the local Yellow Cab phone number.

That inspired the former Houston city councilman and unsuccessful mayoral candidate, who said he plans to seek a third term as treasurer next year, to submit an inquiry to the U.S. Department of Transportation, which sided with him and – in an April 2011 letter – thanked him for his “efforts to prevent government waste, fraud and abuse.”

First let me say “Hey, look! It’s a story involving Harris County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez!” I sometimes forget the guy exists. As a longtime proponent of Metro selling ads on its buses and light rail cars, I can see his point about this. This space has value, and Metro’s giving it away for free.

That said, my overall reaction to reading this story is “Really? What’s the big deal?” Metro was never going to sell ad space on the bus marquees – some people don’t want them to have ads on the exterior of their buses at all – so the value argument falls short. I see this as just basic civic boosterism. It’s hardly unusual for public officials to publicly state support for local sports teams – I’m pretty sure that if Orlando Sanchez had been elected Mayor in 2003, he’d have been out there leading the cheers for the Astros in 2005 as they made their run to the World Series – and I’ve never known that to be controversial, with the exception of the Mayor of a two-sports team town like New York openly favoring one team over the other. And for what it’s worth, Metro has used its buses and trains to promote things other than the Texans, such as the Houston Zoo and the Museum of Natural Science. Perhaps Sanchez would object to those as well, I don’t know. Again, I gotta say, what’s the big deal?

Posted in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles | Tagged buses, Harris County Treasurer, Houston, Houston Museum of Natural Science, Houston Texans, Houston Zoo, light rail, Metro, Orlando Sanchez | 3 Comments

Steve Stockman does something I support

Posted on October 25, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I’m as shocked as you are.

Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, has recently backed a bill to require federal officials to comply with state marijuana laws, which was introduced in April and has since garnered support from Congressmen on both sides of the aisle.

The Respect State Marijuana Laws Act of 2013, introduced by California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican, would bar federal drug enforcement agents from penalizing any person abiding by the marijuana laws in their own state.

The law “shall not apply to any person acting in compliance with State laws” — that is, people who are in compliance with their state laws regarding possession, manufacture or use of marijuana will not be subjected to federal penalties.

Twenty-one states and Washington, D.C. have already legalized medical marijuana, and both Washington and Colorado legalized marijuana for both medicinal and recreational use.

Stockman became the 19th sponsor of the bill, according to this website that you might not want to click if you’re at work. Let’s be perfectly clear about this: Steve Stockman is a whackjob, a terrible Congressman, and a reprehensible human being. Nothing about this changes any of that, but it does show that even a reprehensible whackjob can occasionally land on the right side of a public policy matter, even if as PDiddie notes it will have zero effect in his home state. And while I approve of the basic idea in this bill, I am fully aware of the bad history behind the “leave it to the states” argument. I’d much rather see a bill that simply scaled back federal enforcement of marijuana laws, as a prelude to a larger scaling back of the out of control “war on drugs”. But I don’t think we can get to that today, even with polling data showing much greater acceptance of decriminalization. I see that as a multi-step process, with the RSML Act of 2013 being the first step. More states need to take action, and the debate needs a wider airing at the federal level, possibly – hopefully – in the 2016 Presidential election. In the meantime, I support this effort, even if I don’t care for some of the people pushing it. Politics is like that, and you have to start somewhere. Grits and Texpatriate have more.

Posted in National news | Tagged Colorado, Congress, drugs, marijuana, polls, Steve Stockman, Texas, Washington | Comments Off

EV Day 3 – Where the early votes are

Posted on October 24, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Three days into early voting and the numbers continue to be strong, with a third consecutive day of in-person totals topping 5,000. Here are all the daily totals:

2013
2011
2009
2007

Some people, like Campos, have been trying to get a handle on what this might mean for African-American turnout in particular, since Ben Hall – and Ronald Green and Andrew Burks – are counting on good A-A turnout to varying degrees for their electoral success. As a starting point for that discussion, let’s take a look at the early vote share at locations in predominantly African-Americans locations:


Year  HD131  HD139  HD141  HD142  HD146  HD147  Total
=====================================================
2013   1.9%   3.4%   4.8%   3.7%   9.2%   4.0%  27.0%
2011   0.8%   3.0%   4.8%   2.8%  10.7%   4.6%  26.7%
2009   2.6%   3.1%   5.1%   3.2%   8.1%   4.0%  26.1%
2007   2.4%   3.8%   5.2%   2.9%   9.6%   4.6%  28.5%

The numbers above represent the share of the vote cast at the early vote location or locations in the specified State Rep districts. For the three previous cycles I calculated this based on final EV totals, and for this year I used the totals so far. This year doesn’t look a whole lot different from the last three cycles if you ask me. Obviously, this is a rough measure so don’t put too much stock in it, but it’s clear there’s no big surge relative to the rest of the county. Which brings up a second point, that we may be seeing an increase in non-Houston voters, which would mean that these totals are in fact higher where it matters. To that end, let’s look at the locations that are primarily or entirely outside city limits:


Year   HD126  HD128  HD130  HD132  HD135  HD144  HD150  Total
=============================================================
2013    4.0%   2.7%   4.6%   2.4%   2.2%   1.3%   1.0%  18.2%
2011    2.9%   2.2%   4.6%   1.4%   2.2%   2.0%   1.0%  16.3%
2009    4.2%   2.2%   3.2%   1.4%   1.7%   1.3%   0.9%  14.9%
2007    5.0%   5.9%   1.3%   1.5%   5.5%   1.0%   1.0%  21.1%

Up a bit from the previous two cycles but down from 2007. City turnout was roughly the same in 2007 and 2011, but city turnout as a share of total county turnout differed:

2011 – 73.6% of Harris County vote came from city of Houston voters.
2009 – 69.5% of Harris County vote came from city of Houston voters.
2007 – 63.6% of Harris County vote came from city of Houston voters.

I suspect 2009 broke the pattern because of stronger Election Day turnout. In any event, as with African-American turnout I don’t see anything terribly out of whack with past elections. Again, this is a rough measure, and we won’t know for sure what things look like till we see that first set of results on Election Day evening. There may be surprises lurking – there almost always are – but nothing that stands out to me based on the numbers we’ve seen so far.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged early voting, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Harris County, Houston, turnout | 2 Comments

Burns not running in SD10

Posted on October 24, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Bummer.

Joel Burns

Fort Worth City Councilman Joel Burns announced on Wednesday that he will not run to succeed Wendy Davis in the state Senate.

Burns, who replaced Davis on the City Council in 2007, had emerged as a top Democratic contender for the Senate seat after Davis announced her bid for governor earlier this month. But in an email to supporters on Wednesday, first reported by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Burns said he will not enter the race.

“After many weeks of thought and consideration, my next steps have became very clear to me,” Burns wrote in the email, which he also posted on his Facebook page. “And I want to share with you — my many friends, neighbors and supporters — my decision: Quite simply, the job I most want is the one I already have.”

Burns was my first choice to run for the seat, so I’m disappointed by this. There are other candidates that had been looking at this, so I’m sure someone will step up and run. It was never going to be an easy hold, and if Joel Burns didn’t think he was the right candidate at this time, then so be it.

One more thing:

The fight to replace Davis will be one of the state’s most closely watched races next year. Without her seat, which Davis has won twice in a swing district that leans Republican, Democrats would be left with only 11 seats in the Senate, bringing Republicans within one seat of the two-thirds majority needed in the chamber to bring legislation to the floor for a vote.

The original version of this story said that the loss of Davis’ seat would give the Rs the numbers they needed to overcome the two thirds rule, assuming it still means something in 2015. What Davis gave the Dems was a cushion, but even if we lose her seat the numbers are still there to block bills as needed, and if allowed. I’ve seen some confusion on this point elsewhere, so let me assert my authority here as someone who has a degree in math: 11/31 > 1/3. Put another way, 20/31 < 2/3. It's not that complicated.

Posted in Election 2014 | Tagged Election 2014, Joel Burns, SD10, Senate, Texas, two thirds rule, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

Voter ID litigation moving again

Posted on October 24, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

From Texas Redistricting last week:

The Texas voter ID litigation geared back up today, with the court setting a number of new or revised deadlines now that the government shutdown is over.

Responses to motions by True the Vote and the Texas Association of Hispanic County Judges and County Commissioners to intervene are now due October 30.

The parties joint discovery plan is now due November 4.

And the court will hold the initial case conference – originally set for October 25 – onNovember 15 at 9:00 a.m. in Corpus Christi.

In addition, the State of Texas advised at this morning’s status conference that it would be filing a motion to dismiss the litigation and that the parties had agreed to the following schedule for briefing the motion:

State’s motion to dismiss due October 25.

Responses from the plaintiffs due November 22.

State’s reply due December 6.

The case had been in limbo due to the shutdown, with the Justice Department asking for a stay early on, and the entire federal court system facing the possibility of running out of funds if it had dragged on much longer. Fortunately, in the end the schedule wasn’t greatly affected, and as you can see things will be moving along pretty quickly. I’ve been assuming all along that the experience of this year’s election will factor into the litigation. I’d been focusing on the number of provisional ballots as one possible piece of evidence, but there will likely be some good stories about unexpected hassles at the ballot box, too. We’ll see how that goes.

On a separate but not unrelated note, the plaintiffs in the voter registration litigation have asked for a full review of the three-judge panel’s refusal to issue an injunction against that law while litigation is ongoing. I doubt they’ll get any relief, but it doesn’t hurt to ask. Whether they’ll then ask SCOTUS for same if the full Fifth Circuit declines is unclear.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged Election 2013, Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, Justice Department, lawsuit, Texas, voter ID, voter registration, Voting Rights Act | Comments Off

Texas blog roundup for the week of October 21

Posted on October 24, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

The Texas Progressive Alliance is old enough to remember when everyone who ran for public office did so on a premise of making it work better as it brings you this week’s roundup.

Continue reading →

Posted in Blog stuff | Tagged blog roundup, TPA | Comments Off

Interview with County Judge Ed Emmett

Posted on October 23, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Judge Ed Emmett

In addition to all of the races for local office and the nine constitutional amendments, there are two county referenda on the ballot this fall. One is the Astrodome proposition, with which I trust you are familiar. The other is for the joint inmate processing facility, which will allow the county to more efficiently deal with inmates that expect to be released shortly or that need to be handed off to mental health professionals, and the city to close its dilapidated jails. It will also serve to connect inmates being released from county custody with mental health, housing, and substance abuse services. This is a plan that’s been a long time coming and has broad support as well as the Chronicle’s endorsement. I wanted to ask a few questions about it make sure we all knew what it was about, so I visited with County Judge Ed Emmett and asked him my questions. It’s a fairly short conversation – this is a straightforward issue, not at all complicated – and here it is:

Ed Emmett interview

You can see all of my interviews as well as finance reports and other information on candidates on my 2013 Election page.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged bond referendum, Ed Emmett, Election 2013, Harris County, Houston, interviews, jails | Comments Off

The party-switchers of Bexar County

Posted on October 23, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Nice.

Carlo Key

A Bexar County judge elected during the “red tide” of 2010 is switching parties.

Standing at the foot of the Bexar County Courthouse steps, County Court-at-Law No. 11 Judge Carlo Key said Monday he is joining the Democratic Party and will seek reelection as a Democrat in November 2014.

“Make no mistake, I did not leave the Republican Party, it left me,” said Key, flanked by high-ranking Democrats. “My principles have led me to the Democratic Party, and my only hope is that more people of principle will follow me.”

While he’s been mulling the decision for several weeks, it was the recent federal government shutdown that caused Key to seriously consider switching parties.

[…]

A native of Marshall, Key, 38, was an attorney before he joined the wave of Republican judges who won seats in 2010, when all but one of the new county judges elected that year were Republicans. Key is a 2002 graduate of the Baylor Law School.

He has pitted himself against the law enforcement community by forbidding testimony that a horizontal gaze nystagmus test – in which an officer uses a pen or finger to track involuntary eye movements — indicates intoxication. This summer, Key learned he would face a challenger in the Republican primaries — Julie Wright, a prosecutor married to a police officer.

His announcement came just days after another Bexar County Republican left the party. Last week, Therese Huntzinger, 55, announced she will run for district attorney after recasting herself as a Democrat. Huntzinger, a criminal defense attorney who could face 15-year incumbent DA Susan Reed in the general election, ran unsuccessfully as a Republican for a district judge seat in 1998.

Bexar County Democratic Party Chair Manuel Medina said two other judges who attended a recent Democratic Party event could also make the switch in the near future, and U.S. Congressman Joaquín Castro said he expects more to follow Key and Huntzinger.

“The Republican Party is catering to such a narrow ideological base,” he said, “and many Texans are realizing that the Democratic Party is a better choice. The Texas Republican Party is going backward in respect to Latino issues. This is just the tip of the iceberg.”

I tend to agree with Texpatriate that this says more about the state of the Bexar County GOP than it does about the state party. We’ve seen this movie before – it happened here in Harris County in the 90s as the GOP was taking over the judiciary, and in Dallas County after the 2006 Democratic wave. There’s already the usual rumblings on the R side about moving away from partisan elections of judges, which will only grow louder if Bexar and especially Harris have blue sweeps. You already now how I feel about that so I’ll spare you a rehash, I’ll just say again that there was no comparable level of angst during the red tide of the 90s, in Harris and elsewhere. I’ll stipulate that partisan judicial elections are not the optimal system, I’ll freely admit that some good judges are at risk of losing, I just don’t plan to feel sorry for anyone.

By the way, Judge Key has said that he didn’t make the switch for political advantage, but because he felt he “had” to do it. I don’t doubt his feelings about this, and frankly I hope there’s a lot more like him who feel that way, but I do think he’ll be better off as a Dem in Bexar County in 2014 and beyond. Consider it a nice alignment of the personal and the political.

Also of interest is the bit about the challenger to longtime Bexar County DA Susan Reed. This earlier story has some background on Therese Huntzinger.

In 1989, as a young prosecutor, she defied an order from then-DA Fred Rodriguez that she give up her pursuit of a witness-tampering indictment against one of Rodriguez’s friends and political sugar daddies. When Rodriguez responded by firing her, she filed a whistle-blower lawsuit against him and won a settlement from Bexar County.

Her dramatic fight against Rodriguez attracted the attention of “60 Minutes” and the Lifetime Network, which flirted with the idea of creating a movie about her life. The issue also helped Rodriguez’s 1990 challenger, Steve Hilbig, knock off the incumbent district attorney.

When Hilbig took office, he instantly made Huntzinger part of his prosecutorial team.

[…]

[DA Susan Reed] faced a serious general-election challenge in 2010 from well-funded defense attorney Nico LaHood, but a race against Huntzinger would present the brassy DA with a whole new set of messaging challenges.

For one thing, Reed wouldn’t be able to argue, as she did with LaHood, that Huntzinger lacks prosecutorial experience. Huntzinger has 13 years of work in the district attorney’s office on her résumé, in addition to 15 years as a defense lawyer.

More importantly, Reed will be unable to deflect criticism of her own record by making the election a referendum on her challenger, as she did in 2010, when she verbally pummeled LaHood over his 1994 bust for aggravated delivery of Ecstasy.

Huntzinger said her roots in the Democratic Party extend back to her grandfather, who was a union leader in the stockyards. But her whistle-blowing crusade against Rodriguez, a Democrat, and subsequent work in the office of Hilbig, a Republican, prompted local Republicans to draft her to run for district judge in 1998.

“I stepped out of my Democratic shoes for that race, I lost, and I’m fitting back into them,” Huntzinger said.

Huntzinger suggests that Texas would be better off with nonpartisan judicial and DA races but adds that she has determined in recent years that the Democratic Party is a “better fit” for her. Huntzinger is open about being a lesbian, and the GOP’s negative stance on same-sex relationships has surely been a factor in her break from the party.

Huntzinger contends that even some Republican loyalists are eager to see a change in the district attorney’s office.

“(Reed) believes that you’ve got to bring your toothbrush to the courtroom for every single case and expect to get hit with a hammer,” Huntzinger said. “Well, there’s more to prosecuting than that.”

That ought to be a race worth watching. In the meantime, I submit to you that regardless of what may be going on in Bexar County, this story is related to these two.

State Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands, said on Monday he will run to replace state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, who announced his resignation earlier this month.

In a press release announcing his candidacy, Toth, a Tea Party conservative, emphasized the need for “conservative advocates” like U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz who will “go against the tide and stand for what is right no matter the consequences.”

“As Ted Cruz has courageously demonstrated, simply being a conservative vote is no longer enough,” Toth said.

We’re a ways away from seeing switches at anything but the urban county level, but the more tightly the GOP binds itself to Ted Cruz and his blinkered, unbending zealotry, the closer that day comes. A statement from the TDP is beneath the fold, and BOR, EoW, and PDiddie have more.

Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2014 | Tagged Bexar County, Carlo Key, District Attorney, Election 2010, Election 2014, HD15, judicial races, party switching, SD04, Senate, Steve Toth, straight ticket voting, Susan Reed, Texas, The Lege, Therese Huntzinger | 1 Comment

Chron profile of Ben Hall

Posted on October 23, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

As promised from last week.

Ben Hall

When Ben Hall left the city attorney’s office in December 1994 after three years as a confidante to and attack dog for Mayor Bob Lanier, observers assumed the ambitious 38-year-old’s path would lead back to City Hall someday.

Some thought the self-described “reliably controversial” barrister’s confrontational style was a liability, that he should keep a low profile for a while. Others said Hall could succeed Lanier in just a few years if he kept his name in front of voters.

Hall, the top challenger to Mayor Annise Parker, who is seeking a final two-year term on Nov. 5, acknowledged that he had mapped out the road back to 901 Bagby himself.

“One thing I think any political person should have is financial independence so that they are not tempted to be swayed by idle temptation,” Hall said then, “and so this will help me in my financial independence.”

“This” was a job with renowned trial attorney John O’Quinn’s firm. Nearly 19 years and plenty of big-ticket victories later, the “South Carolina country boy” has certainly achieved the financial independence he sought.

Hall’s name identification with voters had faded by the time he launched his candidacy in January, but he has used his checkbook to make up the deficit. About $2.2 million of the $2.7 million he had raised as of late last month came from his own pocket.

The Chron’s profile of Mayor Parker was the previous Sunday; I blogged about it here. Hall does have a good story to tell – in many candidates, it would be a very compelling story. In Hall, however, I’ve never felt like that story has ever connected to a clear idea of what kind of Mayor he would be. I’ve read his press releases, I’ve critiqued his crimefighting plan, I’ve done an interview with him, but I still don’t have a clear picture of what he would do on big issues like budget, pensions, and quality of life. He’s clearly a smart guy, and I believe he’s genuinely motivated to make Houston a better place. But after all this time, I still don’t know how he would go about it.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Annise Parker, Ben Hall, Election 2013, Houston, Mayor | 2 Comments

Redistricting trial set for July

Posted on October 23, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

The San Antonio federal court has set a date in July of 2014 to resolve the litigation relating to the 2011 and 2013 redistrictings.

A federal three-judge panel in San Antonio on Friday issued a schedule for the case, mostly granting state attorneys’ wishes to have the claims regarding 2011 and 2013 redistricting maps argued in one trial. The Department of Justice and civil rights groups who waged the legal challenge, claiming the maps discriminate against minorities, had asked for a bifurcated trial process.

The trial is set to start on July 14, 2014 and “will continue day to day until complete,” U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia wrote. The scheduling order also set a variety of pre-trial deadlines

According to the filing, the trial will first dive into remaining issues from 2011 redistricting maps and then pivot to Section 3 claims related to those plans. From there, the court will take up evidence about redistricting maps passed by the Legislature over the summer, followed by arguments over Section 3 relief based on that set of election boundaries.

Texas Redistricting noted a week earlier that the state wanted a single trial for both 2011 and 2013 but the plaintiffs wanted two separate ones; the Justice Department proposed a schedule that was a bit of a hybrid. While the state got what it wanted schedule-wise – it made the reasonable point that the two-trial schedule, with the second trial in September, could wind up interfering with the 2016 election cycle, given the inevitability of appeals and the December of 2015 filing deadline – the plaintiffs got their wish to litigate 2011 and 2013 issues separately. Their point about the players being different in each cycle – Burt Solomons was the Redistricting Committee Chair in 2011, but he retired from the Lege after that session – carried weight as the court ruled that the two would be done sequentially rather than at once.

Here’s the schedule of events as we now know them:

April 2 – Deadline for dispositive motions.

May 14 – Deadline to complete supplementation of discovery.

June 2 – Deadline for bench briefs on section 3 relief and for pre-trial disclosures.

July 2 at 8:30 a.m. – Pretrial conference.

The length of the trial is not set, with the court saying it “would continue from day to day until complete.” Mark your calendars and get ready for the action.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged Burt Solomons, Congress, Election 2016, Justice Department, lawsuit, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, Voting Rights Act | Comments Off

Interview with Kevin Hoffman

Posted on October 22, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Kevin Hoffman

My second and final interview for HCC Trustee in District 1 and for candidates this cycle is with Kevin Hoffman. Hoffman has a diverse background, working in the energy industry after previously working non-profit theater companies as a department head. He is heavily involved in neighborhood activities as the former President of Near Northside Super Neighborhood Council #51 and a former board member of the Lindale Park Civic Club and the Metro Solutions, North Corridor Community Advisory Board, among others. He is also active in Democratic politics as President of the Greater Heights Democratic Club and Treasurer of the Houston Stonewall Young Democrats. Hoffman ran against Trustee Yolanda Navarro Flores in 2007 and lost by only a few hundred votes. Here’s the interview:

Kevin Hoffman interview

You can see all of my interviews as well as finance reports and other information on candidates on my 2013 Election page.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Election 2007, Election 2013, HCC, Houston, interviews, Kevin Hoffman | Comments Off

First day EV totals

Posted on October 22, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

It was pretty brisk, with higher turnout than any of the previous three elections. Here are the relevant daily totals:

2013
2011
2009
2007

And here are the numbers for each for day one:


Year   In person  By Mail   Total
=================================
2013       5,025    8,560  13,585
2011       2,557    2,079   4,636
2009       4,089    2,073   6,162
2007       1,681      957   2,638

I suspect some of this is behavior-shifting, but still, that’s quite an upturn. The Astrodome referendum is probably helping some, but we won’t know till the end how much it drove non-Houston votes versus Houston votes. Another big difference this year is in the total number of mail ballots sent as of Day One:

2013 – 28,620
2011 – 12,041
2009 – 17,413
2007 – 11,646

We’ll see if the in-person pace keeps up. I probably won’t post daily updates on this, but will check in with it periodically, when there’s something interesting to say. I’ll hold off on making any turnout projections till the end of week one. If you voted today, how did it go? I voted at the end of the day at the West Gray Multi-Service Center. There was no line, but there were other people voting while I was there. Let us know what it was like at your location. And speaking of such things, here’s simple image view of the early voting schedule and locations, put together by my friend Robert Nagle for for people who don’t like PDFs.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged absentee ballots, Astrodome, early voting, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Houston, turnout | 3 Comments

Lawsuit against abortion restrictions goes to trial

Posted on October 22, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Here we go.

Seeking to block the state of Texas from implementing new abortion regulations, plaintiffs representing abortion providers argued Monday in a federal court that the state’s law violates the constitutional right of women to access the procedure. But the state’s attorneys defended Texas’ right to enact laws that advance protections for the life of a fetus.

U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel, who presided over the hearing, in which arguments are scheduled to wrap up on Tuesday, was clear about what the court’s role was. “This court’s job is not to rule on whether women should be allowed abortions,” said Yeakel, “but to rule on whether or not this statute comes within the existing constitutional confine.”

Given the significance of the law, Yeakel said he’d like to make a decision as soon as possible after arguments conclude.

The plaintiffs, who represent the majority of abortion providers in Texas, including four Planned Parenthood affiliates, Whole Woman’s Health and other independent abortion providers, asked the court for a preliminary injunction to block the implementation of two provisions in House Bill 2 that would take effect Oct. 29: a requirement that doctors who perform abortion have active admitting privileges at a hospital within 30 miles of the facility, and that doctors follow the FDA regimen, rather than a commonly used evidenced-based protocol, for drug-induced abortions. The plaintiffs argued that both of these provisions present an undue burden on women attempting to access abortion and are therefore unconstitutional.

The attorney general’s office argued that these provisions were not approved just to protect the safety of the mother. They were also enacted to advance the state’s interest in promoting and protecting fetal life, one state attorney said at the hearing. The burden of proof lies on the plaintiffs, the attorney said, as the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Casey v. Planned Parenthood allows the state to enact laws that advance its interest in protecting fetal life, so long as it does not create an undue burden on the patient. The court could not overturn the provisions in whole, the state’s attorney argued, because a severability clause in the law requires doctors and patients who believe their constitutional rights have been violated by the law to individually seek exclusion from its provisions.

The state’s attorneys also argued it was not possible to prove — as the plaintiffs allege in the case — that one in three abortion facilities would not be able to perform abortions or that 22,000 women would be prevented from accessing the service until the law took effect.

Yeakel recognized the divisiveness of the issue and said he expects whichever side is disappointed with his ruling to appeal the decision, probably all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. “I would be shocked if whoever was displeased by my ruling did not appeal,” he said.

The lawsuit was filed less than a month ago. You can see all the relevant information about the lawsuit here. I don’t really have much to add to this. We know what the stakes are, and we know where this is going. In the end, what will ultimately make a difference is winning more elections. Remind yourself of that every day between now and next November. If you like following this sort of story on Twitter, the hashtags #FightBackTX and HB2 are for you. You might also want to follow the likes of @andreagrimes; @RHRealityCheck; @scATX, the handle for Jessica Luther; and @ReproRights, the Center for Reproductive Rights, who is leading the litigation. Their press release is here, and there’s more from RH Reality Check, BOR, Think Progress, and the Chron.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged abortion, Center for Reproductive Rights, Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, Greg Abbott, lawsuit, Planned Parenthood, SCOTUS, special session, Texas, The Lege, Travis County | 1 Comment

Chron overview of District I

Posted on October 22, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron covers the District I race.

CM James Rodriguez

The contrasts in this eastside, heavily-Latino council district are dramatic: from the gleaming George R. Brown Convention Center in the heart of downtown, to older neighborhoods lacking modern street drainage where vacant lots become clandestine dump sites.

Four candidates are campaigning to represent a historic slice of central Houston they all agree has both huge potential and a long list of improvements. The near completion of a multimillion-dollar extension of Metro’s light rail passenger line into the district holds the promise of increased economic development, as well as an anticipated influx of travelers who will use the $156 million international terminal under construction at William Hobby Airport.

Demographics explain some of the challenges facing District I and its 180,000 residents.

The average household income of $36,900 annually is $6,000 lower than the citywide average of $42,960. Educational attainment, while improving, is still low with 45 percent of residents lacking a high school diploma. The district is 77 percent Hispanic, the highest concentration of Latinos in any of the council districts, and, not surprisingly, Spanish is the primary language in 68 percent of the homes.

The incumbent, James Rodriguez, is term-limited. The election is Nov. 5.

The ballot features a longtime community worker/activist turned county jailer, a City Council aide with a decade of experience in the district office, and a private businessman with years of managing large city and school district building projects. Rounding out the race is a grass-roots candidate, who polled a surprising 35 percent of the vote against the well-financed incumbent in the 2011 election.

I interviewed all four candidates in this race – Robert Gallegos, Graci Garces, Ben Mendez, Leticia Ablaza. All but Ablaza also did at least one Q&A with Texpatriate or Texas Leftist; you can find those links on my 2013 Election page. The Chron endorsed Garces in the race.

I found the comment about Ablaza and her “surprising” 35% against CM Rodriguez in 2011 to be interesting. As we know, 2011 was a pretty good year to run against an incumbent Council member, as two of them lost and three others at the citywide level (Mayor Parker, CM Costello, CM Noriega) were re-elected with 55% or less. In all these cases, the incumbent had multiple opponents, so even though the not-incumbent vote was 45% or more, it was split multiple ways, often among candidates with minimal resources. A possibly useful comparison is in District H, where like CM Rodriguez, CM Ed Gonzalez had a lone opponent. Here’s how those races compared:


Dist  Candidate      Votes     Pct
==================================
H     E Gonzalez     4,347  68.24%
H     P Rodriguez    2,023  31.76%

I     J Rodriguez    4,050  64.46%
I     L Ablaza       2,233  35.54%

So Patricia Rodriguez, who as far as I could tell in 2011 ran no campaign and raised $500 on the one finance report she filed, received 31.76% of the vote. Leticia Ablaza, who did run a campaign and who raised over $7,500 on the two reports she filed, received 35.54%. You tell me if that qualifies as a surprise. I will further note that neither CM Rodriguez nor CM Gonzalez had an opponent in November 2009 (CM Gonzalez of course won a special election in a June 2009 runoff to succeed now-Sheriff Adrian Garcia), but the undervote in each case (see page 6) was 36.52% for Gonzalez and 37.56% for Rodriguez. Again, you tell me what it all means.

To put this all another way, suppose there had been a third candidate in District I in 2011, and suppose that candidate had been of the no-name, no-campaign variety. How do you think the final outcome would have differed? Would you expect it to be something like 65-33-2, 63-35-2, 65-25-10, 55-35-10, or something else? I’ll say this much – if Leticia Ablaza matches her 2011 percentage, she’s not just a lock for the runoff, she’s almost surely leading the pack. I think that’s certainly possible, but I have no idea how likely it is. We’ll know soon enough.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Ben Mendez, District H, District I, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Graci Garces, Houston, Houston City Council, James Rodriguez, Leticia Ablaza, Patricia Rodriguez, Robert Gallegos | 5 Comments

Interview with Zeph Capo

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Zeph Capo

Early voting starts today, and so this is my last week of presenting interviews. The last frontier is the HCC Board of Trustees, and I have two interviews, both in District 1 where scandal-marred incumbent Yolanda Navarro Flores faces two opponents. First up is Zeph Capo. Capo is a former classroom teacher who is now vice-president and legislative director for the Houston Federation of Teachers and a national trainer for the American Federation of Teachers. He has also served on the HISD Career and Technology Advisory Committee, HISD Alternative Certification Program Advisory Committee, and Greater Houston Partnership Higher Education Committee, among others. He is also active in the HCDP, serving as SDEC Executive Committee member for Senate District 15. Here’s the interview:

Zeph Capo interview

You can see all of my interviews as well as finance reports and other information on candidates on my 2013 Election page.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Election 2013, HCC, Houston, interviews, Zeph Capo | Comments Off

Early voting starts today

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Today we arrive at the more action-oriented part of the election cycle, in which voting actually happens. Early voting starts today and runs through next Friday, November 1. Here’s the schedule and map of locations for Harris County. Check with your County Clerk or Election Administrator for locations elsewhere. Hours for early voting this Monday through Friday are 8 to 4:30, and next week will be 7 AM to 7 PM.

As you know, I like to track the daily early voting numbers, to get a feel for who might be voting and what final turnout might look like. My last daily EV total post from 2011 is the reference point for the start of early voting this year. For your convenience, here are daily totals from previous years:

2011
2009
2007

I’m sure I will come back to these links frequently. In the meantime, feel free to make your guesses about turnout, results, or whatever else you’d like to prognosticate on in the comments.

Of course the big difference this year is that the voter ID law is currently in effect. Litigation is ongoing – I’ll have a separate post on where that stands later this week – but as there were no motions filed for an injunction or restraining order against it for this November election, you will need to bring the kind of ID the state has mandated with you. Got ID Texas is a great resource for that, and Sen. Leticia Van de Putte wrote a good guide to the law, mirrored on BOR. A press release from the Harris County Clerk is beneath the fold. If there’s one message you need to take from this, it’s that no matter what they tell you, CAST YOUR VOTE! If they tell you that you need to bring ID later on to (in Harris County’s case) a Tax Assessor’s office so your vote will not be considered provisional, do it. But under no circumstances should you walk away without voting, and if anyone tells you otherwise, call the County Clerk, the Secretary of State, and if you’re a Democrat the HCDP to let them know about it.

We don’t know what the effect of the voter ID law will be on turnout and composition of the electorate. One thing I know I’ll be watching for is the amount and location of provisional votes. I believe one reason why there wasn’t an injunction sought against the voter ID law was that the plaintiffs wanted to see what those numbers looked like, too. Maybe this will turn out to be less of a big deal than we fear, and maybe it will be worse. One way or another, we’ll find out.

So go forth and vote. If you do vote today, please leave a comment telling us where you voted, how crowded it was, and what your observations were regarding voter ID enforcement. Happy voting!

Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged early voting, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Harris County Tax Assessor, Houston, lawsuit, Leticia Van De Putte, Secretary of State, turnout, voter ID | Comments Off

Third public meeting for I-45 widening

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

From the I-45 Coalition, via the inbox:

TxDOT is starting to roll again on the I-45 project!

TxDOT has just scheduled the 3^rd round of public meetings to be held Thursday, Nov 14 at Aldine Ninth Grade School, 10650 North Freeway & Tuesday, Nov 19 at Jeff Davis High School, 1101 Quitman. Both meetings will be open house format from 5:30 pm to 7:30 pm.

As a brief recap to remind you where we are … because it has been a while:

TxDOT wants to ‘improve’ the I-45 Corridor to alleviate current traffic and plan for future traffic.

1)      TxDOT held its 1st Public Scoping meeting in November 2011 to hear from the public on what to do in the I-45 corridor.

After analyzing the input from the public from that meeting:

2)      TxDOT held its 2nd Public Scoping meeting in October 2012. TxDOT broke the project into 3 segments: Segment 1 (Beltway 8 to 610); Segment 2 (610 to I-10); and Segment 3 (Downtown Loop System).

Each segment had 6 Preliminary Alternatives for a total of 18 alternatives for all 3 segments. TxDOT was to determine the 3 most popular alternatives for each segment (for a total of 9) from evaluating the responses from the public.

Supposedly, “Within 2 months following each meeting, a report from TxDOT summarizing public comments and responses will be made available to the public”.

After the 1st Public meeting, it took 10 months for the public comments to be available. After the 2^nd Public Meeting, it took TxDOT a full year to post the comments .. it just went up this week!

TxDOT has also just announced the 3^rd Public Meeting in November 2013 (mentioned above).

3) This 3rd Public Meeting – is where they will announce the 3 alternatives for each segment (for a total of 9) and we, the public, will choose the final “winner” in each segment. So this is a VERY IMPORTANT MEETING! The results from this meeting will determine how & where the I-45 corridor will proceed! Please mark your calendars now & plan to attend in November! I do not know which 3 alternatives in each segment received the most favorable input at this time. However, within the next 30 days, the I-45 Coalition will be evaluating all comments to determine which alternatives appear to be most favored.

You can find all the details of the 1^st Public Meeting & the 2^nd Public Meeting on TxDOT’s website for this project – www.IH45Northandmore.com.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE plan on attending either of the two upcoming meetings (they both should be identical) so you can (1) hear firsthand from TxDOT what they say are the 3 favored alternatives in each segment & (2) make an informed decision as to what you feel should be the final alternative!

If you made a comment & submitted it to TxDOT after the 2^nd Public meeting, I would suggest that you check to make sure your comment is ‘on the record’, by going to TxDOT’s website & checking. All comments are indexed, so it should be easy to find. If it is not recorded, or not accurate, please let me know.

If you are not on the I-45 Coalition email list, please add your name by going to www.I-45Coalition.org and sign up. You can also find us on Facebook. Once on our list, we will notify you of any updates, meetings or changes to the project. Also if you would like to attend our Steering Committee meetings, just let us know!

Please get involved and/or stay involved! This is important. These decisions will affect you, your family, your home or business & your neighborhood. If you ever use I-45 or have any concerns about what will or will not be done on I-45 … you need to be involved!

See here for the most recent update, which was a year ago. As always, if you can make it to these meetings, please do so.

Posted in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles | Tagged activism, construction, Houston, I-45, TxDOT | 1 Comment

Endorsement watch: For the joint processing center

Posted on October 21, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

An easy call.

[V]oters should consider themselves fortunate that they can easily cut $25 million in unnecessary spending from the city’s annual budget by voting for the Joint Processing Center on Election Day.

The overlapping criminal justice duties of Houston and Harris County have been the target of the good governance crowd for several years, but the time is finally right to end this duplication of services. The once-combative relationship between the county and city has turned into a cooperative swoon. Both sides are ready to let the experts at the Harris County Sheriff’s Office deal with prisoners and give the sheriff a facility that fits the needs of a changing culture in criminal justice. It is a deal that benefits everyone, especially taxpayers.

The new processing center would let Houston close its jails and send prisoners directly to the county, freeing up police officers to patrol the streets. Most of those prisoners already could be sent to the county under the law. The remaining folks would either stay in the new processing center’s 72-hour beds for Class C misdemeanors or the city’s new sobering center for public intoxication cases.

[…]

Voters in 2007 and 2009 rejected similar initiatives for a central processing center, scared off by sticker shock and the prospect of adding even more jail cells. The county and city have learned from their past errors, and this year’s bond proposal costs less than half of the 2009 plan, with only additional short-term beds.

The $70 million bond for the Joint Processing Center is a smart investment, eliminating unnecessary overlap between the city and county. It sets city-county relations in the right direction. We hope to soon see our courts get on the right track, as well.

I’ve got an interview with County Judge Ed Emmett set to run on Wednesday in which he says he isn’t aware of any opposition to this proposition. For good reason, I think – it’s a win all around, probably why it polls well. The Chron suggests that maybe the presence of this center will encourage greater use of personal recognizance bonds. I don’t know if the judges will make that connection or not, but this is worth supporting regardless.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged bail, bond referendum, Ed Emmett, Election 2013, Harris County, Harris County Sheriff, Houston, jails | 1 Comment

Weekend link dump for October 20

Posted on October 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

I’m old enough to remember when people inserted random words on Usenet posts in a (joking?) attempt to confuse NSA surveillance routines. The past is never dead…

Cheating the lines at Disneyland is now harder to do.

Dodos apparently lasted longer than we once thought.

Kids today, and their online-TV-watching ways.

That probably isn’t a spider bite that’s bothering you.

Celebrity Gymnastics, because sure, why not.

RIP, Joseph Gomer, Tuskegee Airman.

We need better government IT, which means we need to be willing to pay for it.

Don’t blame Washington, DC for all the crazy people that get sent there by the voters.

Nerd overload.

Thanks for breaking the Constitution, teabaggers.

From the How Quickly They Forget files.

And from the Some Things, Sadly, Never Change department.

“[T]here has been a movement under way for some years among right-wing economists and activists not merely to default on the debt, but even to repudiate it.”

I still don’t get the smart watch thing. We all understand that a two-way wrist radio is just a portable speakerphone, right? Imagine how much more annoying those public cellphone conversations will be.

“The plain fact is that those who have paralyzed government over the Affordable Care Act today feed at the trough of government health-care subsidies, while seeking to exclude others from sharing the bounty. This is simple selfishness in action.”

They’re coming for your birth control. Never forget that.

Mazel tov, Abby and Sarah! May you have many happy years together.

Credit where credit is due: Charles Krauthammer makes a simple yet effective point in service of a good cause.

“There is no serious argument for Republican governance right now, even if you prefer conservative policies over liberal ones. These people are just too dangerously incompetent to be trusted with power.”

Why do asthma inhalers cost so much?

What Ta-Nehisi says.

Judge Richard Posner regrets his decision to uphold Indiana’s voter ID law. Better late than never, I guess.

“I don’t know where the next dollars are coming from. It was like they ignored us, like they don’t care, like we don’t exist.”

Really racist political cartoons. Many are from long ago, but some are not. Some of them, wow. If Pat Oliphant is still drawing a paycheck from any newspaper or syndicate in America, we should all be ashamed.

RIP, Tom Foley, former Speaker of the House.

If we must start up with the tedious “grand bargain” stuff again, can we at least talk about this kind of “grand bargain”? Thanks.

Posted in Blog stuff | Tagged linkdump | Comments Off

RIP, Bum Phillips

Posted on October 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

A sad day in Houston.

Oail Andrew “Bum” Phillips Jr., who spent half his adult life as a football coach and every waking moment as the personification of all things Texan, died Friday at his ranch in Goliad.

Phillips was three weeks past his 90th birthday and more than three decades removed from his heyday as head coach of the Oilers from 1975 through 1980. But he will be remembered as the personification of a time, a place and a team that remains deep in the hearts of everyone who saw them play.

The end came on a cool autumn football weekend as Houston’s current pro team, the Texans, prepares to play Sunday with his son, Wade, serving as defensive coordinator. Family members said Wade Phillips visited with his father before rejoining the team for its trip to Kansas City.

“Bum is gone to Heaven-loved and will be missed by all -great Dad,Coach, and Christian,” Wade Phillips, whose Twitter handle is @sonofbum, tweeted shortly after 10 p.m.

Bum Phillips was a product of a family that traced its roots to Texas’ frontier past, and he did his job dressed in boots, jeans and a white Stetson – except at the Astrodome, since his mama told him it was impolite to wear a hat indoors.

He was, said one admirer, the “Will Rogers of the NFL,” justly famous for such sayings as, “There’s two kinds of coaches: them that’s been fired, and them that’s gonna be fired.”

But it was his relationship with his players – and theirs to him – and his ability to relate to fans that cemented his place among the legends of Texas football coaches with the likes of Darrell Royal, Tom Landry and Gordon Wood.

“Bum Phillips’ Oilers succeeded in a way that will never be measured by percentages and trophies,” wrote former Chronicle columnist Ed Fowler in a book about the team. “They symbolized a city rather than merely representing it.”

They called it “Luv Ya Blue,” and from 1978 through 1980, it was the biggest thing in Houston sports. In truth, the city has not seen anything to top it.

There’s a ton more out there – here, here, here, and here for starters, but if you only read one other thing about Bum Phillips, make it Dale Robertson’s column, which includes many of Phillips’ famous quotes. Sometimes, sports icons don’t live up to their billing. Sometimes you find out, often years later, that they weren’t at all the person you thought they were from what you’d seen and heard. If anyone had anything bad to say about Bum Phillips, I’ve not seen it. By every account I’ve come across, he was exactly who he seemed to be. He will be missed. Rest in peace, Bum Phillips.

Posted in Other sports | Tagged Astrodome, Bum Phillips, football, Houston, Houston Oilers, NFL, obituaries | Comments Off

Chron overview of Controller’s race

Posted on October 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

It’s an interesting race.

City Controller Ronald Green

On paper, City Controller Ron Green would appear to have been ripe for a bevy of challengers in November.

The city’s elected financial watchdog owes tens of thousands of dollars to the IRS, was criticized for lavish spending while on trips for city business and has publicized ties to a known felon.

Yet, those issues have hardly been discussed by his sole opponent, Bill Frazer, during Green’s campaign for a third and final term.

Instead, the two men have debated qualifications. Frazer, a first-time candidate for any office, argues that despite four years in office, Green does not have the financial background to do the job.

“I don’t think it’s going to do me any good to drag that up now,” Frazer said of Green’s previously publicized troubles. “I think it will take focus off the race. I’m more focused in on what needs to get done.”

Green contends his personal finances and the other issues raised during his first two terms are irrelevant, saying he already has addressed the concerns publicly and is making payments to the IRS.

“I’m proud of the fact that someone else with financial knowledge is even interested in the office, because I do believe it is a very valuable office,” Green said.

My interview with Controller Ronald Green is here, and with Bill Frazer is here. Both also did Texpatriate Q&As, here and here. The Chron endorsed Frazer. As I’ve said, I think this race is Green’s to lose – Frazer has run a creditable race, but I don’t think he’s well known enough to win. What are your thoughts? If you support Frazer, have you voted for Green in the past? Leave a comment and let us know.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Bill Frazer, Election 2013, Houston, Houston City Controller, Ronald Green | 2 Comments

Let’s not get the private high speed rail line bogged down in politics

Posted on October 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

I’m always interested in stories about the Texas high speed rail line.

The company, Texas Central High-Speed Railway, drew attention last year when it announced plans to develop a high-speed rail line without public subsidies. Texas transportation officials took the project seriously, noting the pedigree of the investors: Japanese financiers behind a profitable bullet train line in Japan. Interest has only increased in recent months as the company has added former Texas Rangers president Tom Schieffer and Peter Cannito, former president of the New York-based MTA Metro-North Railroad, as senior advisers.

At the recent Texas Tribune Festival, Texas Central High-Speed Railway President Robert Eckels provided new details about the timeline for the company’s plans.

“We expect to go out in the field after the first of the year with our notice of intent and our environmental impact statement,” said Eckels, a former state legislator and Harris County judge.

[…]

While Republicans may favor the company’s free-market focus, that doesn’t mean the project won’t be completely free of public costs. During this year’s legislative sessions, some lawmakers opposed the allocation of any new transportation resources unless they were dedicated to road construction and maintenance.

“We don’t want operations subsidies,” Eckels said. “We do need regulatory help. We may need help with infrastructure relating to our project.”

Democrats may find themselves questioning whether low-income Texans will be priced out of the service if tickets are priced to cover expenses and make a profit without subsidies.

And both Democrats and Republicans may feel a sense of déjà vu as they draw questions about whether Texas Central High-Speed Railway should be permitted to acquire private Texans’ property. Though the firm hopes to develop most of the line along current freight line rights-of-way, Eckels acknowledged that those won’t cover the entire route. The idea of a foreign-backed private company employing eminent domain for a major transportation project could draw comparisons to the Trans-Texas Corridor, a political headache of a project that lawmakers had to repeatedly declare dead in order to appease angry voters.

See here and here for some background. I think it would be a useful debate to have about operations subsidies for inter-city rail transit like this. Given the tens of billions we are told we need to spend to ensure sufficient road capacity for our growing state, it may well be the case that building and partially subsidizing the operation of a bunch of rail lines is no more expensive and more scalable. For better or worse, we’re not going to have that debate, and as a private venture like the Texas Central High-Speed Railway is likely to be the only kind of rail we get built here, I’m happy to see it make progress towards that goal. I hope the Legislature will be open to hearing what Texas Central needs, and finds a sensible way to work with them to overcome obstacles. It is possible, maybe likely, there will be some Trans-Texas Corridor-style backlash against this, but I’m reasonably optimistic there won’t be. Texas Central is an idea that originated in the private sector rather than with Rick Perry, and from what I’ve seen they’ve been engaging with locals, whereas the TTC was basically an edict from above. There is a foreign company involved so there’s always room for paranoia, but this project is much smaller in scope and shouldn’t require that much in the way of right-of-way acquisition. We’ll see if that makes a difference. By the way, speaking of foreign companies, it is my understanding that Central Japan Railway Company, referenced in this linked story is not an investor in Texas Central High-Speed Railway. The two are cooperating in this effort, but one does not have a direct financial stake in the other. Whether that will have an effect on public and/or legislative opinion of this I couldn’t say, but we should at least all be clear on the facts.

Posted in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles | Tagged Central Japan Railway, high speed rail, Robert Eckels, Texas, Texas Central High-Speed Railway, The Lege, Trans Texas Corridor | Comments Off

Endorsement watch: For Calvert

Posted on October 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron’s second endorsement on Friday, and what should be their last for the regular election, was for Rogene Calvert in At Large #3.

Rogene Gee Calvert

Experience is valuable on Houston City Council. Council members often spend their first two-year term learning the basics of job: Figuring out who the players are, learning how various departments and budgets work and getting a handle on knotty problems such as the pension mess. By the time that council members really understand how things work, they’ve served six years and are term-limited out of office.

Rogene Gee Calvert, running for At-Large Position 3, wouldn’t face that learning curve. She already knows her way around City Hall. She served as a director of volunteers under Mayor Bill White, steering the massive volunteer efforts that surrounded Katrina, and was chief of staff for former council member Gordon Quan.

Right off the bat, she’d be ready to get more bang for taxpayer bucks. Houston, she says, should eliminate redundancy by combining services and sharing buildings with entities such as Harris County, Houston Independent School District and METRO. And the city needs to do a better job of getting state and federal grants.

[…]

Calvert is uniquely ready to get to work, and to tackle a broad range of issues. She’d make a great city council member. Vote for Calvert.

As you know, I’ve been critical of the Chron in years past for being lackadaisical about endorsements. They do seem to do better in odd-numbered years, and this year they got them all done before the start of early voting. Kudos for that. As for this endorsement, Calvert is indeed a strong candidate in a deep field – really, most of the races this year have multiple good choices; nobody should be complaining about picking among nonentities or least-of-evils this year. My interview with Rogene Gee Calvert is here. I encourage you to listen to all the interviews I did with At Large #3 candidates, for which links are on my 2013 Election page. Four of the six candidates also did Q&As with Texpatriate and one with Texas Leftist, and those links are there as well.

One more thing:

In a strong field of competitors, Roland Chavez, a retired City of Houston firefighter, also stands out. Our city desperately needs to renegotiate its unsustainable pension deal with firefighters, and Chavez, who used to represent the firefighters’ union in those negotiations, could bring useful insights.

In my interviews, Chavez was one of a small number of candidates to specifically say they opposed Mayor Parker’s efforts to get legislation passed that would subject the firefighters’ pension fund to meet and confer requirements. Given the Chron’s obsession with pensions and their tireless efforts to bend the local legislative delegation to their will, I find that a most curious thing for them to say. Perhaps, to paraphrase Paul Simon, they hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. Greg has more.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged At Large #3, Election 2013, endorsements, HFD, HFRRF, Houston, Houston City Council, pension fund, Rogene Calvert, Roland Chavez | Comments Off

Saturday video break: Happy anniversary

Posted on October 19, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Old school anniversary celebration:

And hey, look: A cover version!

Nothing like a rousing anniversary song, is there?

Posted in Music | Tagged television, videos | Comments Off

Sam Houston officially announces for AG

Posted on October 19, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Good.

Sam Houston

Houston attorney and fortuitously named Democrat Sam Houston announced Thursday his plans to make a statewide run at Attorney General, making him the first Democrat to officially toss his hat in the ring.

Houston, who received the most votes of any Democrat on the ballot in 2008 (3.5 million, 46%) when he ran for state Supreme Court, will be challenging three Republicans vying for the position, including state Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, state Sen. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney, and Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman of Houston.

“I will make a formal announcement in the coming weeks,” Houston said in a press release. “Until then, I look forward to speaking with the people of Texas about our shared vision for the future of our great state.”

See here for more on Houston. I met Sam Houston back in 2008 and I think he’ll make a fine candidate. I hope one of the things he talks about is the obsession in recent years that AG Greg Abbott has had with “voter fraud”, which his would-be successors on the GOP side are eager to continue pursuing, which has cost taxpayers millions, has nothing to show for it other than some harassed citizens, and has come at the expense of other priorities. If he can raise some money, and I think he will be able to, this should be an interesting campaign. In the meantime, Kinky Friedman made his bid for Ag Commissioner official – we’ll see if anyone challenges him for that – and we’re still waiting on Sen. Leticia Van de Putte. The level of bullshit in the Lite Guv race is already toxic – we desperately need an antidote for it. Please say you’re in, Senator VdP, and please make it soon. PDiddie has more.

Posted in Election 2014 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Election 2008, Election 2014, Greg Abbott, Kinky Friedman, Leticia Van De Putte, Lite Gov, Sam Houston, Texas | 3 Comments

Demagnetized

Posted on October 19, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Some unhappy changes are about to occur at Houston schools.

Terry Grier

HISD officials unveiled a plan Thursday to cut funding and end bus rides next year for transfer students at 20 struggling magnet schools, tackling a politically tough topic that has confounded the district for years.

The campuses will be the first to feel the consequences of the school board’s policy, passed in May, to end the specialty programs that draw few students from outside the neighborhood or post low test scores. Until now the board has put off eliminating any of its 115 magnet programs – roughly 40 percent of its schools – amid protests from parents.

The campuses on the hit list will lose a combined $2.3 million in extra funding next year.

In addition, the hundreds of students who transfer to the schools and now get district transportation will have to arrange other rides.

Superintendent Terry Grier described the decision bluntly.

“If you don’t meet standard, you should not be a magnet school,” he said.

The HISD Board of Trustees approved the change to the magnet school policy back in May, and while Board President Anna Eastman disputed Grier’s assertion that no Board vote was needed to affirm these cuts, there was no opposition from any Board member or education-related group noted in the story. With HISD still struggling with the deep budget cuts in public education from 2011 and the property tax rate about to go up to fund pay raises and the Apollo program, I’m sure this savings will offer some relief.

Here’s the list of schools affected by this:

* The 20 campuses that will lose their extra magnet funding and busing next year are Burbank, Elrod, Law, Pleasantville, Wesley and West University elementary schools; Attucks, Deady, Dowling, Henry, Holland, Jackson and Key middle schools; and Jones, Lee, Madison, Sharpstown, Westbury, Wheatley and Worthing High schools.

* Those on probation are Crespo, Garden Villas, Helms, MacGregor, Pugh, Ross and Wainwright elementaries; Hogg and Long middle schools; and Kashmere, Scarborough, Sterling and Washington high schools.

Helms and Hogg are in my neighborhood. Helms has a dual-language program that some friends of mine have their kids in. Hogg has been aggressively pursuing upgrades to its IB and STEM programs in part to make the school more attractive to Heights-area parents. I hope they can close whatever gaps they face. The school on these lists that surprised me was West U Elementary. According to Harvin Moore, who responded to an email query I sent, West U Elementary has only about 40 magnet kids, in a school of 1100 students. I guess they draw plenty from their neighborhood. Which is ideally what it should be – every neighborhood should have a school that resident want their kids to attend. We’ll see how this plays out. Hair Balls, which takes a negative view of this action by HISD, has more.

Posted in School days | Tagged Anna Eastman, budget, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, magnet schools, schools, Terry Grier | 2 Comments

Endorsement watch: For Christie

Posted on October 19, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron endorses freshman CM Jack Christie in At Large #5.

Jack Christie

At-Large council members act as a sort of minister without portfolio. While district council members focus on constituent issues, at-large members can set their own agendas. The previous incumbent for At-Large Position 5, Jolanda Jones, said her goal was to serve as “the voice of the voiceless.” Not everyone liked what they heard. Her calls for scrutiny slowed down business as usual at City Hall – for better or worse. Several of Jones’ fellow council members, not to mention former Mayor Bill White, united behind Jack Christie to defeat Jones in 2011. He won in the runoff.

Despite his low-profile status at City Hall, one would be pressed to find an incumbent on Council who faces such animosity from challengers. Their criticisms have little to do with his overall performance and instead focus on a single point: Christie doesn’t support vaccinations.

Christie has served for three terms as a member of the State Board of Education and three terms on the Spring Branch Independent School District Board of Trustees, but he’s also a chiropractor, and as one he has as deep skepticism of modern medicine. This came to light during a vote to accept a federal grant that would fund flu shots for poor kids and the elderly. “You don’t die from the flu,” Christie remarked at council, casting the only no vote.

People do die from the flu – thousands in U.S. every year. Christie’s conspiracy theories have no place in public policy. These unfounded fears of vaccinations have led to the return of once-scarce illnesses. For example, a measles outbreak struck 25 people in Newark, Texas, this past August, centered around a church whose senior pastor had criticized vaccinations.

To his credit, Christie expressed his dangerous position, cast his protest vote and moved on.

I’ve interviewed CM Christie three times now – here is this year’s interview. I find him to be engaging and likable, and generally speaking I think he’s been a decent Council member. But the vaccination issue just gobsmacks me. I know people who share his views; I’m related to at least one of them. This belief that vaccines are harmful defies all logic and reason, is based on a fraud, and yet is unshakeable in its adherents. It’s also demonstrably dangerous, as the measles outbreak cited by the Chron made clear recently. It would be one thing if this belief were strictly a personal matter, but we’ve already seen that it directly intersects with Council matters. Christie’s opponents are right to hammer on it, and the Chron is wrong to dismiss them for it. It’s true that CM Christie’s irrational opposition to that grant amounted to little more than a meaningless “No” vote, and that unlike some other Texas politicians I could name, he didn’t do any further damage to the system or the process for the sake of defending his indefensible belief. But he doesn’t deserve a pass for it. If the Chron didn’t think that either James Horwitz or Dr. Carolyn Evans-Shabazz were suitable for Council, then perhaps they should have taken a pass on this race. At the very least, they should have taken their own stated concerns more seriously.

Anyway. As noted, my interview with CM Christie is here, and my interview with James Horwitz is here. I did not interview Dr. Evans-Shabazz, but she did a Texpatriate Q&A; Horwitz also did Q&As from Texpatriate and Texas Leftist. The Chron ran two endorsements yesterday, but I decided to treat them as separate posts this time. I’ll blog about the other one tomorrow. Finally, Noah Horwitz, one of the Texpatriate bloggers and the son of James Horwitz, sent a letter to the editor of the Chron in response to their endorsement of CM Christie, which I have reproduced below. These are his words and not mine – I’ve said my piece above – but I agreed to print his letter in case the Chron didn’t.

Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged At Large #5, Carolyn Evans-Shabazz, Election 2013, endorsements, Houston, Houston City Council, Jack Christie, James Horwitz, vaccinations | 3 Comments

Chron overview of At Large #2

Posted on October 19, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at one of the most competitive races involving an incumbent on the ballot this year.

CM Andrew Burks

A minister, architect and city accountant are vying to unseat Councilman Andrew C. Burks Jr. from the Position 2 at-large seat on the Houston City Council, but Burks and his challengers differ on what the most important issue in the campaign should be.

Burks, 62, a minister and owner of AM-PM Telephone Service Inc., is seeking his second term, having won two years ago in his seventh attempt at a city council seat; overall, this is his 13th run for office. He is facing three challengers: David Robinson, 47, owner of Robinson Architectural Workshop; Trebor Gordon, 51, an associate pastor at Central Canaan Christian Church; and Modesto “Moe” Rivera, 58, an accounting supervisor for the city airport system.

The issues they see as key to the campaign are strikingly different, ranging from tax exemptions for senior citizens to the size of the city budget.

Worth reading the whole thing, especially if like me you’re one of those weird people that cares about issues and wants to know what priorities candidates have and what they plan to do about them. My interview with CM Burks is here and with David Robinson is here. I did not interview Trebor Gordon or Modesto Rivera-Colon, but you can see Texpatriate Q&As with them here and here, respectively; Rivera-Colon also did a Q&A with Texas Leftist here. The Chron endorsed Robinson. As I suggested earlier, I think CM Burks may be in some trouble, but we’ll see. Even after two sitting Council members were bounced in 2011, it has still been very difficult in the term limits era to oust an incumbent.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Andrew Burks, At Large #2, David Robinson, Election 2013, Houston, Houston City Council, Modesto Rivera-Colon, Trebor Gordon | Comments Off

Friday random ten: Love, exciting and new

Posted on October 18, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday was my 15th wedding anniversary. In celebration of that, these are some of the mushiest love songs I have in my collection:

1. Can’t Help Falling In Love – Elvis Presley
2. Just The Way You Are – Billy Joel
3. Fly Me To The Moon – Frank Sinatra and Count Basie
4. Chapel Of Love – The Beach Boys
5. Dedicated To The One I Love – The Mamas & The Papas
6. Have I Told You Lately That I Love You? – Van Morrison and The Cheiftains
7. How Sweet It Is (To Be Loved By You) – James Taylor
8. Love Struck Baby – Stevie Ray Vaughan & Double Trouble
9. I’ve Got My Love To Keep Me Warm – Les Brown and His Band of Renown
10. No Matter What Goes Right – Trout Fishing In America

Love is a many-splendored thing, even after all these years.

Posted in Music | Tagged Friday random ten, theme lists | 3 Comments

Where things stand going into early voting

Posted on October 18, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

A few impressions of the state of the races as we head into early voting.

Mayor – The thing that I will be looking for as initial results get posted at 7 PM on November 5 is how the gaggle of non-competitive candidates is doing. The thing about having nine candidates in a race, even if only two of them have any realistic hope of winning, is that it doesn’t take much support for the long tail to make a runoff a near-certainty. Basically, the amount that the seven stragglers get is the amount Mayor Parker must lead Ben Hall by in order to win the election in November. If the group of seven gets 10%, then Parker needs to lead Hall by at least ten points – 50 to 40 to 10 – in order to win outright. If they collect 20%, Parker needs to lead by 20 – 50 to 30 to 20.

There are no good parallels to this year’s race, but for what it’s worth the three bit players in 2009 got 1.01% of the vote; in 2003 six no-names for 0.65%; in 2001 there were four minor candidates collecting 0.45%; and in 1997, the bottom five candidates got 11.94%. That last one, which may be the closest analogue to this year, comes with an asterisk since two of those five candidates were term-limited Council members, Gracie Saenz and Helen Huey, and they combined for 10.46% of that total. One reason why the past doesn’t offer a good guide for this year is that in all of these races there were at least three viable candidates. Everyone else, save for Saenz and Huey in 1997, was truly marginal. None of Eric Dick, Keryl Douglass, or Don Cook can be considered viable, but they all ought to have a slightly larger base than the perennials and no-names in these earlier races. How much larger is the key question, because however large it is, that’s how big Mayor Parker’s lead over Ben Hall will need to be for her to avoid overtime.

Controller – This race has been Ronald Green’s to lose from the get go, and it remains so. I don’t think his position is any stronger than it was nine months ago, but at least he hasn’t had any bad publicity recently, either. He’s largely held onto the endorsements he’s gotten in the past, though losing the Chron had to sting a little. He’s still an underwhelming fundraiser, but while Bill Frazer has done well in this department he hasn’t done enough to make himself a recognizable name, and that’s to Green’s advantage. Green probably needs Ben Hall to make a decent showing, because while Green did reasonably well in Republican areas in 2009, he will probably lose some of that support this time, and as such he may need a boost from African-American turnout. If Green loses he can certainly kiss any Mayoral ambitions he may have goodbye. If he squeaks by, I can already envision the postmortem stories that will talk about his close call and how that might affect his Mayoral plans. If he were to run for Mayor in 2015, I guarantee that narrative will follow him closely all the way through, just as Mayor Parker’s close shave in 2011 has followed her in this cycle.

At Large Council – I feel confident saying that CMs Costello, Bradford, and Christie will win, though Christie will have the closest call and could conceivably be forced into a runoff. His two opponents have picked up a decent assortment of endorsements between them given their late entries and fairly low profiles. One wonders how things might have gone if someone had jumped into this race early on, as I suggested many moons ago.

I think CM Andrew Burks could be in trouble. He’s done a reasonable job collecting endorsements, but he hasn’t done as well on that score as a typical incumbent does. Like Ronald Green, he needs Ben Hall to have some coattails in the African-American districts, but remember that Burks has not done as well in those boxes as other African-American candidates. But it’s fundraising where you really see the red flags. Combining his three reports for this year, Burks has hauled in about $57K total. His main challenger, David Robinson, reported raising over $66K just on his 30 Day form. Robinson took in another $82K on the July report. He also has over $73K on hand for the late push, while Burks has just $8K. Money isn’t destiny, but these numbers are the exact reverse of what you’d usually see with an incumbent and a challenger.

As for At Large #3, it is as it has been all along, basically wide open with each of the five viable candidates having a plausible case for making the runoff. Bob Stein pegs Michael Kubosh as basically already having a ticket punched for the runoff, but I’ll wait and see. He probably has the best name ID of the group, but that doesn’t mean he’s terribly well known. I just don’t know enough about this one to hazard a guess.

District Council races – A year ago at this time, I’d have marked first term CM Helena Brown as an underdog for re-election. Now I’m not so sure. She’s done well at fundraising, she’s garnered some endorsements – getting the HAR endorsement was both a finger in the eye for Brenda Stardig and a nice bit of establishment sheen for herself – and she hasn’t generated any embarrassing headlines in months. I believe she’s still going to be in a runoff, most likely with Stardig but not necessarily with her, but I think runoff scenarios that don’t include Brown are unlikely at this time. I might bet a token amount on her being un-elected, but I wouldn’t bet any real money on it.

Brown’s freshman colleague Jerry Davis looks to be in better shape. There’s still resentment to him in some quarters, mostly from former CM Carol Mims Galloway and her supporters, but Davis has good support on his side, and he’s gotten the large majority of campaign contributions. Kathy Daniels is a good candidate and she’ll make some noise – a runoff isn’t out of the question – but I see Davis as the clear favorite.

Districts D and I are anyone’s guess. Dwight Boykins has the edge in D, but it’s a strong field, and if Boykins doesn’t clearly separate himself from the rest of the pack he could be vulnerable in December if the bulk of the runnersup back his opponent. Anything could happen in I, where none of the four candidates seems to have a clear advantage over the others. It won’t shock me if it’s a close finish among the four, with a small number of votes separating the runoff contestants from the other two. Some runoff scenarios are preferable to others, but all scenarios are possible.

HISD and HCC – No surprises in HISD. I believe Anna Eastman gets re-elected, Harvin Moore gets re-elected though Anne Sung will have put herself on the map, and Wanda Adams wins in IX. Zeph Capo has run a strong race in HCC1 – this is one of those times where a string of endorsements will mean something – and I believe he wins there. I think Bruce Austin and Neeta Sane get re-elected, but I don’t know about Herlinda Garcia, and I have no clue who will win in the open District 5 seat.

Everything else – I think the two Harris County propositions, for the Astrodome and for the joint processing center, will pass. I think the constitutional amendments will pass, though one or more may fail for some goofy and unforeseeable reason. I do think Prop 6, the water infrastructure fund, passes. The one non-Houston race I’m keenly interested in is the Pasadena redistricting referendum. I have no idea how that is going, but obviously I’m rooting for it to go down.

Posted in Election 2013 | Tagged Andrew Burks, Anna Eastman, Anne Sung, Annise Parker, Astrodome, Ben Hall, Bill Frazer, Brenda Stardig, constitutional amendments, David Robinson, Dwight Boykins, Harris County, Harvin Moore, HCC, Helena Brown, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, Houston City Controller, Houston City Council, Jerry Davis, Kathy Blueford Daniels, Mayor, Pasadena, redistricting, Ronald Green, Texas, Wanda Adams, Zeph Capo | 5 Comments

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