Tag Archives: precinct analysis

CD21 poll: Davis 48, Roy 47

Posted on September 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Second poll in this district. Between August 31 and September 4, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative sample of 401 likely general election voters in Texas-21st CD. The survey, which was conducted on both landlines and cell phones, was fully representative of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD21, Chip Roy, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Lamar Smith, polls, precinct analysis, Ted Cruz, Texas, Tom Wakely, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

Poll: Michael Moore claims large lead in Commissioners Court race

Posted on September 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Keir Murray: Like Dallas County did over a decade ago, Harris County Commissioners Court poised to flip from 4-1 Republican to 4-1 Democrat in just two election cycles. @mmooretx strongly positioned to win Pct. 3. Trump trailing by 14 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, Donald Trump, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Kim Ogg, Michael Moore, polls, precinct analysis, Texas, Tom Ramsey | 2 Comments

A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 4 Comments

Primary precinct analysis: Where a man can still win

Posted on May 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As previously discussed, female candidates in Democratic judicial primaries kicked a whole lot of ass this year. The four statewide races that featured one female candidates against one male candidate were shockingly not close – Amy Clark Meachum and Tina … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Court of Criminal Appeals, Democratic primary, Election 2020, Fisher County, Gisela Triana, Gregg County, Harrison County, judicial races, Peter Kelly, precinct analysis, Rusk County, Supreme Court, Texas | 11 Comments

Primary precinct analysis: Who did what in the RRC race

Posted on March 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Railroad Commissioner primary was a bit like the Senate primary – multiple candidates (though not nearly as many), not a whole lot of money, but the candidate who did best in fundraising was also the leading votegetter. Here’s a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bell County, Bexar County, Brazoria County, Brazos County, Cameron County, Chrysta Castaneda, Collin County, Dallas County, Democratic primary, Denton County, El Paso, Election 2020, Ellis County, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Hays County, Hidalgo County, Jefferson County, Kelly Stone, Lubbock, Mark Watson, McLennan County, Montgomery County, Nueces County, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, Robert Alonzo, runoff, Smith County, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, Webb County, Williamson County | 2 Comments

Primary precinct analysis: Everyone did something in the Senate primary

Posted on March 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

So while we wait for actual precinct data from the primary, I thought I’d take a look at some county-level data from the non-Presidential races, as they have the county-by-county breakdown on the SOS election night pages. The US Senate … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Ocegueda, Amanda Edwards, Annie Garcia, Bastrop, Bexar County, Brazoria County, Brazos County, Cameron County, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, Chris Bell, Collin County, Comal County, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, Dallas County, Democratic primary, Denton County, DR Hunter, El Paso, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Guadalupe County, Harris County, Hays County, Hidalgo County, Jack Foster, Jefferson County, Lubbock, Maverick County, Michael Cooper, MJ Hegar, Montgomery County, Nueces County, precinct analysis, Royce West, Sema Hernandez, Senate, Smith County, Tarrant County, Texas, Victor Harris, Webb County, Williamson County | 2 Comments

What is “safe”?

Posted on February 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Saw this on Twitter, and it got me thinking: For those upset about critique of establishment politics: There are D reps in SAFE blue seats who side w/ the NRA, are anti-LGBT+, and yet are protected because they advance the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD28, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Henry Cuellar, Hillary Clinton, Jessica Cisneros, Kirk Watson, precinct analysis, President, SD14, Senate, Texas | 2 Comments

Chron overview of HD134

Posted on January 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Is this the year Sarah Davis loses? That’s the question. The March primaries are weeks away, but the first question at a recent forum for the three Democrats running to unseat state Rep. Sarah Davis centered on November: “How do … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Ann Johnson, CD17, Chet Edwards, Christi Craddick, Democratic primary, Ed Emmett, Election 2010, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellen Cohen, Glenn Hegar, Greg Abbott, HD134, Joi Chevalier, Lanny Bose, Lina Hidalgo, precinct analysis, Roman McAllen, Ruby Powers, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2019 HD148 special election

Posted on December 29, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I started this post while doing other precinct analysis stuff. Didn’t finish it with the others, but now that the legislative special election runoffs are next up on the calendar, I thought I’d finish it off. First, here’s how the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Anna Eastman, Bill King, Dwight Boykins, Election 2019, Harris County, HD148, Houston, Lui LaRotta, Mayor, precinct analysis, special election, Sue Lovell, Sylvester Turner, Texas, The Lege, Tony Buzbee, turnout | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2019 Metro referendum

Posted on December 8, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The one election of interest within Harris County that wasn’t mostly or entirely within Houston was the Metro referendum. Let’s have a look at how that vote went. Dist Yes No ==================== A 18,795 10,648 B 15,120 4,037 C 32,384 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Election 2003, Election 2019, Harris County, Houston, Metro, precinct analysis | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2019 Controller

Posted on December 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Back to the precinct data. This one’s easy, as there are only two candidates. Dist Sanchez Brown ==================== A 8,771 7,059 B 4,507 10,779 C 17,652 21,540 D 7,391 15,225 E 14,505 10,672 F 4,798 4,559 G 18,093 13,451 H … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Bill Frazer, Chris Brown, Election 2015, Election 2019, Election 2023, Houston, Houston City Controller, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis | Comments Off

Chron overview of the At Large #2 runoff

Posted on December 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

This one’s a rerun. City Councilman David W. Robinson and the Rev. Willie R. Davis last faced off for the At-Large 2 seat in 2015, with Robinson winning by 10 percentage points and taking on his second term. Four years … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged At Large #2, David Robinson, Election 2015, Election 2019, Eric Dick, Houston, Houston City Council, precinct analysis, runoff, Willie Davis | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #5

Posted on November 27, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Our last At Large race, and another one with many candidates. There wasn’t a clear division among the nine contestants here, so I’m presenting them all. Dist Batteau Garcia Flowers Dick Rivera Bonton Alcorn Woods McNeese ============================================================================ A 654 955 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Annise Parker, Ashton Woods, At Large #5, bandit signs, Brad Batteau, Catherine Flowers, Election 2011, Election 2013, Election 2015, Election 2019, Eric Dick, HCDE, Houston, Houston City Council, Michelle Bonton, precinct analysis, runoff, Sallie Alcorn, Sonia Rivera, yard signs | 8 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #4

Posted on November 25, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

We move now to the first of two open seat At Large races, where the candidates were many and the clarity was lacking. Here’s an abridged look at At Large #4: Dist Ericka Hillyer Baldwin Dolce Javier Plummer ==================================================== A … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Anthony Dolcefino, At Large #4, Bill Baldwin, Election 2019, Ericka McCrutcheon, Houston, Houston City Council, Javier Gonzalez, Letitia Plummer, Nick Hellyar, precinct analysis, ranked choice voting, runoff | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #3

Posted on November 24, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Another At Large race, another incumbent in a runoff. Here’s At Large #3: Dist JCGonz Kubosh Marcel Janaeya ==================================== A 2,944 7,730 1,698 2,395 B 2,405 5,417 2,293 4,802 C 5,452 17,022 3,402 9,584 D 3,554 8,903 3,052 6,250 E … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged At Large #3, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Houston City Council, Janaeya Carmouche, Jose Carlos Gonzalez, Marcel McClinton, Michael Kubosh, precinct analysis, runoff | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #2

Posted on November 23, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Welcome to At Large #2, the second of three At Large races in which an incumbent is in the runoff. Dist DavidR Davis Griff DeToto Honey ============================================ A 4,570 3,995 1,643 3,575 809 B 5,779 5,416 958 1,921 391 C … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Andrew Burks, At Large #2, David Robinson, Election 2015, Election 2019, Emily Detoto, Eric Dick, Griff Griffin, Houston, Houston City Council, Mike Knox, precinct analysis, runoff, Willie Davis | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2019 At Large #1

Posted on November 22, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I’m going to take a look at the five At Large Council races as well, since all of them have interesting things to say about what happened. First up is At Large #1, where incumbent Mike Knox will face first … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged At Large #1, Election 2015, Election 2019, Georgia Provost, Houston, Houston City Council, Larry Blackmon, Mike Knox, precinct analysis, Raj Salhotra, runoff, Sylvester Turner, Tony Buzbee, turnout, Yolanda Navarro Flores | 13 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2019 Mayor’s race

Posted on November 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I know you’ve been waiting for this. I have the draft canvass, I’ve been doing the Excel things, so let’s get down to it. Dist Lovell King Turner Buzbee Boykins Others ==================================================== A 217 3,002 6,481 7,061 646 727 B … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Bill King, Dwight Boykins, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Mayor, precinct analysis, runoff, Sue Lovell, Sylvester Turner, Tony Buzbee, Victoria Romero | 15 Comments

A reminder about the local legislative races

Posted on September 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s review the facts together. State Rep. Jon Rosenthal wasn’t supposed to win his Texas House seat last year. He was too much of a Democrat for the swath of northwest Harris County that had long elected Republicans. But in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Calanni, HD126, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, Jon Rosenthal, precinct analysis, President, Sam Harless, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 SBOE

Posted on April 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 State Board of Education positions, currently divided 10 GOP to 5 Dem. They’re bigger than State Senate and Congressional districts but no one raises any money for them so they’re basically decided by partisan turnout. As with … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Bell County, Beto O'Rourke, Debby Kerner, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Palmer, precinct analysis, redistricting, SBOE, Texas, Travis County, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2018 State House

Posted on March 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke won 76 State House districts. Out of 150. Which is a majority. Let me say that again so it can fully sink in. BETO O’ROURKE WON 76 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS. Remember that after the 2016 election, Democrats held … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Bill Zedler, Brad Buckley, Craig Eiland, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, GD31, Greg Abbott, HD102, HD105, HD106, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD117, HD121, HD122, HD126, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD14, HD23, HD26, HD28, HD29, HD32, HD34, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD54, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD74, HD84, HD85, HD89, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, Hillary Clinton, Jimmie Don Aycock, JM Lozano, Joe Straus, Jonathan Stickland, Matt Krause, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, Todd Hunter | 11 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

Posted on March 20, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD15, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD28, CD31, CD32, CD34, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Dayna Steele, DCCC, Democratic primary, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Joe Kopser, Justin Nelson, Kim Olson, Lizzie FLetcher, Lupe Valdez, Mike Collier, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, Roman McAllen, Texas, Will Hurd | 4 Comments

Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

Posted on March 19, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018, Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD31, CD32, Chip Roy, Colin Allred, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jan McDowell, John Carter, John Culberson, Kenny Marchant, Lizzie FLetcher, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Will Hurd | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Angela Paxton, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Charles Schwertner, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Hillary Clinton, Joan Huffman, Justin Nelson, Lupe Valdez, Mark Phariss, Mike Collier, Pete Flores, precinct analysis, Roman McAllen, SD02, SD05, SD07, SD08, SD09, SD10, SD11, SD12, SD16, SD17, SD19, SD25, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend

Posted on January 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Did you know that Fort Bend County went blue in 2018 as well? Of course you did. Let’s take a closer look at how that happened. Dist Cruz Beto Dikeman Cruz% Beto% Dike% ====================================================== HD26 32,451 33,532 406 48.88% 50.51% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Brian Middleton, Commissioners Court, County Judge, District Attorney, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Fort Bend County, Governor, HD26, HD27, HD28, HD85, Hillary Clinton, Justin Nelson, Kim Olson, KP George, Lite Gov, Lupe Valdez, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Senate, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: The county candidates

Posted on January 2, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s just dive right in and have a look at the countywide candidates, shall we? Dist Emmett Hidalgo Gatlin Under Emmett% Hidalgo% Gatlin% ============================================================== CD02 150,630 103,625 5,842 5,005 57.91% 39.84% 2.25% CD07 135,016 100,412 4,967 4,819 56.16% 41.77% 2.07% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Chris Daniel, Diane Trautman, District Clerk, Dylan Osborne, Ed Emmett, Election 2018, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Harris County Judge, Harris County Treasurer, HCDE, Lina Hidalgo, Marc Cowart, Marilyn Burgess, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis, Richard Cantu, Stan Stanart, straight ticket voting, Texas | Comments Off

Another straight-ticket truther

Posted on December 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, outgoing Fort Bend DA John Healey! When John Healey began his career as a young prosecutor in Fort Bend County in the early 1980s, Ronald Reagan was president, MTV had just gone on the air and the then-rural county … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Brian Middleton, County Judge, District Attorney, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, John Healey, judicial races, precinct analysis, straight ticket voting | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: The two types of statewide candidates

Posted on December 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When we look at the precinct data in Harris County, we can separate the statewide candidates into two groups. Here’s the first group: Dist Abbott Valdez Tipp Abbott% Valdez% Trump% Clinton% =============================================================== CD02 146,399 112,272 4,345 55.66% 43.40% 52.38% 43.05% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, CD07, Christi Craddick, Comptroller, Dan Patrick, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, George P. Bush, Glenn Hegar, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, Justin Nelson, Ken Paxton, Land Commissioner, Lite Gov, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, SBOE, Texas | 3 Comments

The decline and fall of the Republican Party in Harris County

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It can be summed up in this table: Dist Romney Trump Cruz =========================== HD126 62.1% 53.0% 51.5% HD127 69.2% 61.2% 59.5% HD128 72.4% 68.2% 66.8% HD129 64.5% 55.3% 54.0% HD130 75.9% 68.1% 66.0% HD132 58.9% 50.0% 47.9% HD133 68.1% 54.5% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Republican Party, Senate, straight ticket voting, Ted Cruz, turnout | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, James Cargas, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Ted Poe, Texas, Todd Litton, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Beto does Harris County

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

He won pretty much everywhere you looked. So let’s look at the numbers: Dist Cruz Beto Dike Cruz% Beto% Trump% Clint% ============================================================= CD02 132,390 129,160 2,047 50.22% 49.00% 52.38% 43.05% CD07 112,078 129,781 1,843 45.99% 53.25% 47.11% 48.47% CD08 17,552 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, Commissioners Court, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, HD126, HD129, HD133, HD138, HD150, Hillary Clinton, precinct analysis, SBOE, Senate, Steve Radack, Ted Cruz, The Lege | 6 Comments

How Ted Cruz barely hung on

Posted on November 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s check some hot takes on what happened in the Senate race. All in all, Beto improved upon Democratic gains in Texas’ 10 most populous counties, long central to their hopes of turning the state purple. But what about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2012, Election 2018, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 10 Comments

The Dallas County House battleground

Posted on September 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Lot of seats in play here. [Julie] Johnson is among several Democratic candidates in Dallas hoping national and statewide talk of a blue wave will trickle down to several local state House races. A mix of Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, HD105, HD113, HD114, HD115, Hillary Clinton, John Turner, Jonathan Boos, Julie Johnson, Lisa Luby Ryan, Lupe Valdez, Matt Rinaldi, precinct analysis, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, Rodney Anderson, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: HCDE Precinct 1

Posted on April 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

After the last precinct analysis post, I got an email from Danny Norris, one of the two candidates in the runoff for HCDE Position 6, Precinct 1, asking if I intended to look at this race. My answer at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD07, Commissioners Court, Danyahel Norris, Democratic primary, Election 2018, HCDE, Jonathan Miller, Justice of the Peace, precinct analysis, Prince Bryant, runoff, turnout | Comments Off

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