Tag Archives: President

Please stop with the straight ticket voting anecdotes

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Either bring me some real data or leave these just so stories alone. Judging from Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Dallas County, Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button should have been doomed this November. Meyer and Button are the only two … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Brandy Chambers, Donald Trump, Eddie Morales, Election 2018, Election 2020, HD108, HD112, HD134, HD31, HD74, Joanna Cattanach, Joe Biden, Morgan Meyer, President, Ryan Guillen, Sarah Davis, Senate, straight ticket voting, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

Counties of interest, part one: Around Harris

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s been so much focus in the past couple of years about the suburbs and how their traditional voting patterns have changed. I wanted to use the election results we have to take a closer look at what that means. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Brazoria County, Chambers County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Waller County | 6 Comments

A closer look at county races, Part 2

Posted on November 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Brazoria County, CD03, CD21, CD22, CD24, CD25, CD26, Collin County, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Court of Criminal Appeals, Denton County, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Erin Zwiener, Hays County, HD106, HD33, HD45, HD63, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD70, HD89, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, President, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, SBOE, Sheriff, Supreme Court, Tax Assessor, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bexar County, Carlos Uresti, CD31, Commissioners Court, Constable, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Fagan, Falls County, Fort Bend County, Harris County, HD117, HD118, HD136, HD52, HD85, Hillary Clinton, James Talarico, Jennifer Cantu, Joe Biden, Joe Lopez, John Bucy, John Carter, John Cornyn, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Larry Gonzales, Leo Pacheco, Mike Clark, Mike Gleason, MJ Hegar, Pete Flores, Phil Stephenson, Phillip Cortez, President, Railroad Commission, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, Richard Morrison, Robert Chody, Roland Gutierrez, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Sheriff, Supreme Court, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, Tomas Uresti, Tony Dale, Williamson County | 3 Comments

The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, I-35, Joe Biden, John McCain, Jones County, Mitt Romney, President, Tarrant County, Texas, turnout, voter registration, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Harris County posts updated election results

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . That won’t affect most races, and it probably does not affect any Harris-County specific races. But if provisional ballots are like that statewide, it could affect larger, close elections. I’m particularly watching Chief Justice for the 14th … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, Amparo Guerra, Austin County, Brazoria County, CD07, Chambers County, Colorado County, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Gina Calanni, Grimes County, Harris County, HD132, HD135, Jane Robinson, Joe Biden, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike Schofield, Military and Overseas Voting Empowerment Act, President, provisional ballots, Terry Adams, Texas, The Lege, Tracy Christopher, Waller County, Washington County | 1 Comment

So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 2 Comments

For a million bucks, I’ll tell you where to find Bigfoot

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

That’s about as likely to happen as this is. As GOP lawyers and leaders frantically search for proof of fraud to back allegations of election irregularities, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick offered to pay tipsters at least $25,000 for information leading … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Dan Patrick, Donald Trump, Election 2020, John Fetterman, Pennsylvania, President, Texas | 11 Comments

Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Cecile Richards, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Joe Biden, judicial races, Julian Castro, Lina Hidalgo, Lite Gov, marijuana, Medicaid, Mitch McConnell, President, primaries, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 6 Comments

It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD18, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Justice of the Peace, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

If W can accept the outcome…

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Seems like a basic exercise in maintaining democracy, but what do I know? Former President George W. Bush congratulated President-elect Joe Biden on Sunday, sending a clear signal to other Republicans, including President Donald Trump, who are questioning the election … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2020, George Bush, Joe Biden, President, Texas | 5 Comments

A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Houston celebrates Biden’s win

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Aw, hell yeah. “Honk for 270!” When CNN announced Joe Biden had crossed the 270-electoral college vote mark needed to secure the presidency, Terrance Koontz elatedly shouted at Saturday’s “Voters Decide: Count Every Vote” rally in Southwest Houston. “Let’s let … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Election 2020, Houston, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, President | 2 Comments

A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Dallas County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, HD137, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jolt Initiative, Latino voting, polls, precinct analysis, President, Starr County, Texas, turnout | 11 Comments

A few observations from the final unofficial countywide data

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is still unofficial, and there will still be some overseas/military ballots to be counted as well as some provisional ballots to be cured, but the count of the votes cast by Election Day is over, and we have the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Akilah Bacy, Ann Johnson, CD07, CD22, Congress, early voting, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Calanni, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, Jon Rosenthal, Libertarian Party, Lizzie FLetcher, precinct analysis, President, Sarah Davis, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 3 Comments

Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, President, provisional ballots, redistricting, Sheriff, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Grady Yarbrough, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD132, HD133, HD135, HD138, HD150, Jack Morman, Jane Bland, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, turnout, voter registration, Wendy Davis | 8 Comments

So what happened in the Latino counties?

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s go to the data: County Trump Clinton Trump Biden ============================================= Bexar 240,333 319,550 303,871 440,823 Cameron 29,472 59,402 48,834 63,732 Dimmit 974 2,173 1,384 2,264 El Paso 55,512 147,843 81,235 168,801 Frio 1,856 2,444 2,812 2,421 Hidalgo 48,642 118,809 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Bexar County, Cameron County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, Frio County, Hidalgo County, Hillary Clinton, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Latino voting, Maverick County, Nueces County, polls, President, Presidio County, Starr County, Texas, turnout, Webb County, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 3 Comments

Followup omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Wanted to clear up some loose ends from the late night/early morning post and add a couple of things I’d missed the first time around. I’ll have a longer “thoughts and reactions” post probably tomorrow. – The district results from … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, absentee ballots, Amparo Guerra, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Congress, curbside voting, early voting, First Court of Appeals, Galveston, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, Jane Robinson, President, provisional ballots, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Tamika Craft, Texas, The Lege, Third Court of Appeals, turnout, Veronica Rivas-Molloy | 4 Comments

Omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was up really late last night, and there’s still a lot of votes to be counted. The SOS website was mostly trash, but a lot of county election sites took their sweet, sweet time even reporting any Election Day … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Brandy Chambers, CD23, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Fagan, Fort Bend County, Gina Calanni, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, Israel Garcia, Joanna Cattanach, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Latino voting, Michael Moore, Mike Schofield, Morgan Meyer, Pete Flores, polls, President, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, redistricting, Roland Gutierrez, Russ Ridgway, Sarah Davis, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Sheriff, straight ticket voting, Ted Heap, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, Tony Gonzales, turnout | 16 Comments

The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

Today is Election Day

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It almost feels unreal, doesn’t it? Like some people have been saying while on line at voting locations, we’ve been waiting four whole years for this. Now it’s here, Texas is considered a swing state, the Lege is in play, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Chris Hollins, Congress, early voting, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Joe Biden, MJ Hegar, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voting centers | 2 Comments

A few thoughts about Election 2020 before Tuesday

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a brain dump, to get this all out there before we find out what happened. Let’s start with this: After the conclusion of three weeks of early voting, 9.7 million Texans have cast ballots, crushing previous early voting totals … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Chris Hollins, Collin County, Comal County, coronavirus, Denton County, Donald Trump, drop off boxes, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Fort Bend County, Greg Abbott, Guadalupe County, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Hays County, Joe Biden, lawsuit, Montgomery County, polls, President, Texas, Travis County, turnout, voter ID, voter registration, Williamson County | 16 Comments

Univision: Trump 49, Biden 46

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Always time for one more poll, apparently. The race for the White House in Texas is so close in the Nov 3 presidential election that it’s beginning to look uncharacteristically like a swing state, according to a new Univision News … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Florida, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, Pennsylvania, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 3 Comments

DFP: Biden 49, Trump 48

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, from Twitter: . Biden leads 54 to 45 among those that have already voted. For more information on early vote statistics (and for live results on election night) visit https://2020.dataforprogress.org. — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 10:50 AM – … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 2 Comments

More investment from Bloomberg

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, better late than never. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is funding a last-minute ad blitz on behalf of Joe Biden in Texas and Ohio, providing a boost to the former vice president as polls and a flutter of late campaign … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged advertising, attack ads, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, MJ Hegar, Ohio, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

NYT/Siena: Trump 47, Biden 43

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Possibly the last poll of interest for the cycle. President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs but … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

Bloomberg drops some money in the RRC race

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I have four things to say about this. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has made a late donation of $2.6 million to the Democratic nominee for railroad commissioner, Chrysta Castañeda, providing a massive fundraising boost in a race for the oil and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged campaign finance reports, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2020, fundraising, Green Party, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, Libertarian Party, Michael Bloomberg, polls, President, Railroad Commission, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

UH-Hobby: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a poll result that stands in contrast to the others we have seen lately. President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by more than five points among likely voters in Texas, according to a poll released … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, Bert Richardson, Chrysta Castaneda, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2020, Elizabeth Frizell, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, Nathan Hecht, polls, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout, UH | 29 Comments

Here comes Kamala

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a little fuel to the “Texas is in play” fire. Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s running mate and the California U.S. senator, will be visiting Texas on Friday, according to an email Biden’s campaign sent to Democratic lawmakers in Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged early voting, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, polls, President, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 45

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The late run of good polls in Texas for Joe Biden continues. Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Greg Abbott, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 6 Comments

Morning Consult: Biden 48, Trump 47

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The overview is here and there are some words that I’ll include shortly, but for the headline we’ll need this picture: I know it says “Tied” despite the “Biden 48, Trump 47” listing. My guess is that the exact numbers … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged advertising, Donald Trump, Election 2020, fundraising, Future Forward, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 2 Comments

Quinnipiac: Biden 47, Trump 47

Posted on October 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Very interesting. In the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden is in a tied race with President Donald Trump in the reliably red state of Texas, and he holds a single digit lead … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

DFP: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . Police cars revolving lightNew Poll – TX Police cars revolving light Biden 47 – Trump 46 Cornyn 44 – Hegar 41 https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-5/toplines/tx.pdf — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 8:21 PM – 18 October 2020 What’s interesting about this … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged CD22, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Sri Kulkarni, Texas, Troy Nehls | 6 Comments

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