Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Precinct analysis: The targets for 2018

Posted on March 20, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape. Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, HD115, HD121, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD43, HD52, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD97, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Dallas county elections

Posted on March 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged CD32, Dallas County, Election 2016, Election 2018, HD105, HD107, HD114, judicial races, Lupe Valdez, precinct analysis, Sheriff, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Our first look at Senate district data

Posted on February 28, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib looks at the data we now have. In the state Senate, one Republican — Don Huffines of Dallas — is now representing a district that Clinton easily won, while two more — Konni Burton of Colleyville and Joan … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Brazoria County, Collin County, Court of Criminal Appeals, Dallas County, Don Huffines, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joan Huffman, Kelly Hancock, Konni Burton, precinct analysis, President, SD08, SD09, SD10, SD16, SD17, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Van Taylor | 2 Comments

As goes Tarrant

Posted on February 19, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib ponders the one big urban county that is not like the others. Among the state’s five biggest counties, Tarrant is the only one that hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate in the past decade. The 2016 presidential election … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Fort Worth, George Bush, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John McCain, Konni Burton, Marc Veasey, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, SD10, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Wendy Davis | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Dallas County statewides

Posted on February 7, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Last time we looked at the Presidential numbers in Dallas County legislative districts (plus CD32). Today we follow up with a look at the statewide races. I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so please bear with … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Court of Criminal Appeals, Dallas County, Deborah Lehrmann, Donald Trump, Dori Garza, Election 2016, Eva Guzman, Grady Yarbrough, HD105, HD107, Hillary Clinton, judicial races, Kenneth Sheets, Mark Burnett, Mark Miller, Martina Salinas, Mike Westergren, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, Robert Burns, Rodney Anderson, Supreme Court, Terry Meza, Texas, Victoria Neave, Wayne Christian | Comments Off

DCCC says it will aim for three Texas Congressional seats

Posted on February 6, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

We’ll see what this means in practice. The House Democratic campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, announced Monday morning that the party intends to target two longtime GOP incumbents that, until recently, have long been considered locks for re-election: … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Allen Vaught, CD07, CD23, CD32, Congress, Dallas County, DCCC, Debby Kerner, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, John Culberson, Mike Rawlings, Pete Sessions, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Will Hurd | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Dallas County Presidential numbers

Posted on January 31, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

News flash: Hillary Clinton won every Dallas County State Rep district. See for yourself: Dist Trump Clinton Johnson Stein ======================================== CD32 117,758 127,824 5,751 1,056 HD100 8,405 33,647 647 217 HD102 24,768 30,291 1,312 287 HD103 8,710 28,689 683 205 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Dallas County, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Harris County, HD102, HD105, HD107, HD108, HD113, HD115, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Texas Congressional districts

Posted on January 13, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

From Daily Kos: Texas’s GOP-drawn congressional map was designed to create 24 safely red seats and 11 safely Democratic districts, with only the 23rd District in the western part of the state being truly competitive. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, CD01, CD07, CD23, CD32, Congress, Dallas County, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Gary Johnson, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Mitt Romney, Pete Gallego, Pete Sessions, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Will Hurd | Comments Off

The Trib looks at Fort Bend’s Democratic trend

Posted on January 11, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

It’s worth noting. Despite long being considered a Republican county, Fort Bend went blue on Nov. 8 when Hillary Clinton won the county with an almost seven-point margin of victory. It wasn’t just an electoral flip — it was a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2017, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, Hillary Clinton, precinct analysis, President | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

Posted on December 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I had some time to spare, so I spent it with the canvass reports from Brazoria County. You know, like you do. Here’s what I was able to learn. Trump Clinton R Avg D Avg Weber Cole ======================================================= Votes 36,572 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, Barack Obama, Brazoria County, CD14, CD22, Congress, Dennis Bonnen, Donald Trump, Doug Blatt, Ed Thompson, Election 2012, Election 2016, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Harris County, HD25, HD29, Hillary Clinton, John Floyd, judicial races, Mark Gibson, Mitt Romney, Nick Lampson, Paul Sadler, Pearland, Pete Olson, precinct analysis, President, Ron Paul, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 6 Comments

Precinct analysis: Don’t be mesmerized by the Clinton/Trump numbers

Posted on December 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the DMN: Donald Trump may have carried Texas and clinched the White House in November, but support for the Republican presidential nominee waned in parts of the Dallas area — news that, in a typical election year, could spell … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, CD07, CD32, Collin County, Congress, Dallas County, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, John Culberson, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Pete Sessions, precinct analysis, President, Texas | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend State Rep districts

Posted on December 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Following on from yesterday’s post, here’s a look at the vote in Fort Bend from the perspective of the State Rep districts. Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem % =============================================== President 35,005 31,558 52.59% 47.41% CJ, 1st CofA 40,047 28,336 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Commissioners Court, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, HD26, HD27, HD28, HD85, Hillary Clinton, John Zerwas, precinct analysis, President, Rick Miller, Texas, The Lege, turnout | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend Commissioners Court precincts

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I have not done Fort Bend precinct analyses in the past because I don’t get easily-worked-with CSV-format canvass reports from them after elections. However, it turns out that their election returns page for this year has a “Reports” button on … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Commissioners Court, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Richard Morrison, Texas | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: None of the above

Posted on December 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Evan McMullin, Harris County, HD128, HD146, precinct analysis, President, Ralph Nader, write-in candidate | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Posted on December 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Ann Harris Bennett, Don Sumners, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Harris County Tax Assessor, judicial races, Leo Vasquez, Mike Sullivan, Paul Bettencourt, precinct analysis, Stan Stanart | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Posted on December 5, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged bail, District Attorney, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Harris County, Harris County Attorney, Harris County Sheriff, Kim Ogg, lawsuit, precinct analysis, Vince Ryan | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Ogg v Anderson

Posted on November 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level. Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg% ========================================== CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02% CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80% CD09 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Devon Anderson, District Attorney, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Gary Johnson, Harris County, HD134, Hillary Clinton, Jill Stein, Kim Ogg, precinct analysis, President | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: District courts

Posted on November 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Today we will look at the Harris County-specific judicial races, by which I mean the district courts plus two County Court benches. I’m going to begin with something a little different, which is a look at the distribution of how … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Barack Obama, CD02, CD07, Commissioners Court, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, HD126, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, HD144, HD148, Hillary Clinton, Jack Morman, judicial races, Mary Ann Perez, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, The Lege | 3 Comments

HISD special election runoff will be December 10

Posted on November 22, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t believe I’ve seen a news story about this. The runoff election for the top two candidates to fill the unexpired term of outgoing HISD District VII Trustee Harvin Moore has been set for Dec. 10. Candidates competing in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Anne Sung, Dori Garza, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2017, Harvin Moore, Hillary Clinton, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, John Luman, precinct analysis, runoff, special election, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: State courts

Posted on November 21, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Dori Garza, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Eva Guzman, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, judicial races, Linda Yanez, Michele Petty, Nathan Hecht, Paul Green, Phil Johnson, precinct analysis, President, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: The RRC and the Libertarian moment

Posted on November 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Back to precinct analysis, and the race that I featured in my post from yesterday, the Railroad Commissioner race. Here are the numbers: Dist Christian Yarbrough Miller Salinas =========================================== CD02 152,751 97,235 18,346 6,835 CD07 130,384 96,652 20,510 6,537 CD09 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Election 2016, endorsements, Grady Yarbrough, Harris County, HD133, HD134, HD148, Mark Miller, Martina Salinas, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, Texas, Wayne Christian | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Hillary in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s get started with the precinct data, shall we? Here’s a Chron story from the day after the election about how things looked overall in the county. The country’s most populous swing county turned a shade bluer Tuesday, when Hillary … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged CD07, Commissioners Court, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gary Johnson, Harris County, HD134, HD138, Heights, Hillary Clinton, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, precinct analysis, President, runoff, SBOE, special election, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 5 Comments

Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

Posted on November 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Bexar County, Brazoria County, Cameron County, Collin County, Comal County, Court of Criminal Appeals, Dallas County, Denton County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Hays County, Hidalgo County, Hillary Clinton, Johnson County, Keith Hampton, Mike Keasler, Montgomery County, Parker County, Polk County, precinct analysis, President, Robert Burns, Sharon Keller, Tarrant County, Texas, Texas Organizing Project, Travis County, turnout, Webb County, Williamson County | 5 Comments

Chron overview of HD134

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Ben Rose, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, HD134, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Flipping Fort Bend

Posted on October 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

FiveThirtyEight projects a national insight down to the local level. In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Blake Farenthold, Brewster County, CD27, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Fort Bend County, Hillary Clinton, Hudspeth County, Kenedy County, Mitt Romney, Nueces County, polls, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Uvalde County | Comments Off

Three State Rep race overviews

Posted on October 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

In the order of their publication, beginning with HD149: For more than a decade in Texas House District 149 – where Harris and Fort Bend counties meet – a growing, ethnically diverse voting population has done something rare for the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Bryan Chu, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Gene Wu, Gilbert Pena, HD137, HD144, HD149, Hubert Vo, Kendall Baker, Mary Ann Perez, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: HISD Trustee district VII in a Presidential year

Posted on August 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, we have a special election for HISD Trustee in district VII on the ballot this November. There’s one Democratic candidate in that race and three Republicans. These races are normally held in odd-numbered years, in which turnout … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Anne Sung, Barack Obama, Election 2012, Election 2013, Election 2016, Harris County, Harvin Moore, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, special election, turnout | 1 Comment

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Posted on August 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, polls, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 7 Comments

An early look ahead to the legislative races

Posted on June 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Cindy Burkett, Election 2012, Election 2016, Gilbert Pena, HD102, HD105, HD107, HD112, HD113, HD117, HD118, HD136, HD144, HD23, HD43, HD54, HD78, Jeffrey Lane, Jimmie Don Aycock, JM Lozano, Joe Moody, John Lujan, Kenneth Sheets, Laura Irvin, Linda Koop, Lloyd Criss, Marisa Garcia-Utley, Mary Ann Perez, Mitt Romney, Philip Cortez, precinct analysis, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, Rick Galindo, Rodney Anderson, Sandra Blankenship, Scott Cosper, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, Tomas Uresti, Victoria Neave, Wayne Faircloth | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

Posted on March 9, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Harris County, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, precinct analysis, President, primaries, Ted Cruz, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2016 Democratic Presidential primary

Posted on March 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I love the smell of precinct data in the morning, don’t you? Here’s a breakdown of the Democratic Presidential primary vote for Harris County: Dist Bernie Hillary Bernie% Hill% ====================================== 126 2,315 4,649 33.04% 66.35% 127 2,621 4,905 34.54% 64.64% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016, The making of the President | Tagged Bernie Sanders, Democratic primary, Election 2008, Election 2016, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, precinct analysis, President | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

Posted on December 31, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

One last election to review: Dist Brown Frazer ====================== A 5,232 7,918 B 13,161 2,616 C 15,244 15,726 D 16,390 4,197 E 6,118 16,073 F 3,890 3,527 G 8,775 21,762 H 6,558 3,117 I 5,253 2,731 J 2,794 2,763 K … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Bill Frazer, Bill King, Chris Brown, Election 2015, Harris County, Houston, Houston City Controller, precinct analysis, runoff, Sylvester Turner, turnout | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #5 runoff

Posted on December 30, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Our last Council runoff review: Dist Christie Moses ====================== A 8,729 3,657 B 3,273 11,539 C 17,743 8,757 D 5,285 13,847 E 16,652 4,324 F 4,108 2,747 G 23,150 4,954 H 4,230 4,405 I 3,716 3,611 J 3,149 1,985 K … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #5, Election 2011, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Houston City Council, Jack Christie, precinct analysis, runoff, Sharon Moses | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #4 runoff

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Here we have the least competitive runoff of the six that were citywide. Dist Edwards Morales ======================= A 6,322 6,153 B 14,660 1,761 C 17,813 10,238 D 18,341 2,882 E 7,688 13,231 F 4,046 3,080 G 11,996 15,203 H 5,610 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Amanda Edwards, At Large #4, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2013, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Houston City Council, Mayor, Melissa Noriega, precinct analysis, Roy Morales, runoff, special election | 2 Comments

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